A preregistered multi-lab replication of Maier et al. (2014, Exp. 4) testing retroactive avoidance

Maier, Markus; Büechner, Vanessa L.; Dechamps, Moritz C.; Pflitsch, Markus; Kurzrock, Walter; Tressoldi, Patrizio; Rabeyron, Thomas; Cardeña, Etzel; Marcusson-Clavertz, David; Martsinkovskaja, Tatiana

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0238373

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Second, it is possible that the results from earlier studies represented chance findings or undetected subtle artifacts and that the results obtained in the present studies accurately reflect the absence of a psi effect based on the preplanned analyses. This is consistent with the null results reported in another recent multi-laboratory, pre-registered replication attempt with large N (Maier et al, 2020), which also tested retroactive influence (but without informing participants prior to testing that they would be tested for ESP). Our results are also consistent with the broader observation of finding smaller psychological effects in pre-registered replication attempts than in retrospective meta-analytic estimates (Kvarven et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Two Replication Studies of a Time-Reversed (Psi) Priming Task and the Role of Expectancy in Reaction Times

Schlitz¹,

Bem

Marcusson-Clavertz³

et al. 2021

JSE

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Two experiments involving an international collaboration of experimenters sought to replicate and extend a previously published psi experiment on precognition by Daryl Bem that has been the focus of extensive research. The experiment reverses the usual cause–effect sequence of a standard psychology experiment using priming and reaction times. The preregistered confirmatory hypothesis is that response times to incongruent stimuli will be longer than response times to congruent stimuli even though the prime has not yet appeared when the participant records their judgments. The confirmatory hypothesis for Experiment 1 was not supported. Exploratory analyses indicated that those participants who completed the English-language version rather than a translation showed a significant effect, as was the case in the original study; no significant departure from chance was found in data involving non-English translations. Experiment 2 sought to enhance the predicted effect by having each participant read either a pro-psi or an anti-psi statement at the beginning of the experiment to test the pre-recorded hypothesis that a pro-psi statement would produce a larger effect than an anti-psi statement. The results did not support the primary psi hypothesis and there was no effect in the English-language sample. However, there was mixed support for the effect of the psi statement on performance; those participants who received the pro-psi statement had a greater psi score than those who received the anti-psi statement. As in the original experiment, neither the experimenters’ nor participants’ beliefs were significantly associated with the dependent measure. In sum, the pre-registered confirmatory hypotheses were not supported. The importance of the personality variable Sensation Seeking, a component of extraversion, as a correlate of psi performance is discussed as are the challenges and implications for international collaborations and replication in controversial science. Keywords: priming; expectancy effect; retrocausation; consciousness; sociology; precognition; psi; replication Two experiments involving an international collaboration of experimenters sought to replicate and extend a previously published psi experiment on precognition by Daryl Bem that has been the focus of extensive research. The experiment reverses the usual cause-effect sequence of a standard psychology experiment using priming and reaction times. The preregistered confirmatory hypothesis is that response times to incongruent stimuli will be longer than response times to congruent stimuli even though the prime has not yet appeared when the participant records his or her judgments. The confirmatory hypothesis for Study 1 was not supported. Exploratory analyses indicated that those participants who completed the English-language version rather than a translation showed a significant effect, as was the case in the original study; no significant departure from chance was found in data involving non-English translations. Study 2 sought to enhance the predicted effect by having each participant read either a pro-psi or an anti-psi statement at the beginning of the experiment to test the pre-recorded hypothesis that a pro-psi statement would produce a larger effect than an anti-psi statement. The results did not support the primary psi hypothesis and there was no observed association between belief and experience of ESP and psi outcome. However, there was mixed support for the effect of the psi statement on performance; those participants who received the pro-psi statement had a greater psi score than those who received anti-psi statement. As in the original experiment, neither the experimenters’ nor participants’ beliefs or expectations were significantly correlated with the dependent measure. In sum, the pre-registered confirmatory hypotheses were not supported. The importance of the personality variable Sensation Seeking, a component of extraversion, as a correlate of psi performance is discussed as are the challenges and implications for international collaborations and replication in controversial science.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Two Replication Studies of a Time-Reversed (Psi) Priming Task and the Role of Expectancy in Reaction Times

Schlitz¹,

Bem

Marcusson-Clavertz³

et al. 2021

JSE

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…This was also performed for the control data. In the same way, for each of the 10,000 simulations, the sum score of amplitudes was computed (see Maier et al, 2020). The latter provided a null distribution of amplitude sums.…”

Section: Fft Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Observer Dependent Biases of Quantum Randomness

Dechamps

Maier²,

Pflitsch³

et al. 2021

JAnExCog

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Quantum mechanics (QM) proposes that a quantum system measurement does not register a pre-existing reality but rather establishes reality from the superposition of potential states. Measurement reduces the quantum state according to a probability function, the Born rule, realizing one of the potential states. Consequently, a classical reality is observed. The strict randomness of the measurement outcome is well-documented (and theoretically predicted) and implies a strict indeterminacy in the physical world’s fundamental constituents. Wolfgang Pauli, with Carl Gustav Jung, extended the QM framework to measurement outcomes that are meaningfully related to human observers, providing a psychophysical theory of quantum state reductions. The Pauli-Jung model (PJM) proposes the existence of observer influences on quantum measurement outcomes rooted in the observer’s unconscious mind. The correlations between quantum state reductions and (un)conscious states of observers derived from the PJM and its mathematical reformulation within the model of pragmatic information (MPI) were empirically tested. In all studies, a subliminal priming paradigm was used to induce a biased likelihood for specific quantum measurement outcomes (i.e., a higher probability of positive picture presentations; Studies 1 and 2) or more pronounced oscillations of the evidence than expected by chance for such an effect (Studies 3 and 4). The replicability of these effects was also tested. Although Study 1 found strong initial evidence for such effects, later replications (Studies 2 to 4) showed no deviations from the Born rule. The results thus align with standard QM, arguing against the incompleteness of standard QM in psychophysical settings like those established in the studies. However, although no positive evidence exists for the PJM and the MPI, the data do not entirely falsify the model’s validity.

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“…One critical point in precognition research and also more general in research about extrasensory perception or psychokinesis experiences ("PSI": the causes underlying extrasensory perception and psychokinesis experiences cannot be explained by known physical or biological mechanisms [ 79 ]) is the recurring pattern that positive study findings cannot be reliably replicated [ 42 , 47 – 50 , 80 ]. One attempt to explain these replication problems refers to the possibility that only some particularly gifted persons show large PSI effects, while the majority of participants do not [e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Top-down resolution of visual ambiguity – knowledge from the future or footprints from the past?

2021

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Current theories about visual perception assume that our perceptual system weights the a priori incomplete, noisy and ambiguous sensory information with previous, memorized perceptual experiences in order to construct stable and reliable percepts. These theories are supported by numerous experimental findings. Theories about precognition have an opposite point of view. They assume that information from the future can have influence on perception, thoughts, and behavior. Several experimental studies provide evidence for precognition effects, other studies found no such effects. One problem may be that the vast majority of precognition paradigms did not systematically control for potential effects from the perceptual history. In the present study, we presented ambiguous Necker cube stimuli and disambiguated cube variants and systematically tested in two separate experiments whether perception of a currently observed ambiguous Necker cube stimulus can be influenced by a disambiguated cube variant, presented in the immediate perceptual past (perceptual history effects) and/or in the immediate perceptual future (precognition effects). We found perceptual history effects, which partly depended on the length of the perceptual history trace but were independent of the perceptual future. Results from some individual participants suggest on the first glance a precognition pattern, but results from our second experiment make a perceptual history explanation more probable. On the group level, no precognition effects were statistically indicated. The perceptual history effects found in the present study are in confirmation with related studies from the literature. The precognition analysis revealed some interesting individual patterns, which however did not allow for general conclusions. Overall, the present study demonstrates that any future experiment about sensory or extrasensory perception urgently needs to control for potential perceptual history effects and that temporal aspects of stimulus presentation are of high relevance.

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A preregistered multi-lab replication of Maier et al. (2014, Exp. 4) testing retroactive avoidance

Cited by 9 publications

References 39 publications

Two Replication Studies of a Time-Reversed (Psi) Priming Task and the Role of Expectancy in Reaction Times

Two Replication Studies of a Time-Reversed (Psi) Priming Task and the Role of Expectancy in Reaction Times

Observer Dependent Biases of Quantum Randomness

Top-down resolution of visual ambiguity – knowledge from the future or footprints from the past?

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