An a priori analysis of a DNS database of turbulent lean premixed methane flames is presented considering the relative effects of turbulence and LES filtering, along with a potential modelling approach for LES with finite-rate chemistry. The leading-order effect was found to be due to the filter operation; flame response to turbulence was a secondary effect, and manifested primarily as an increase in standard deviations about conditional means. It was found that the radicals O, H and OH were less impacted by the filter than other high-temperature radicals, which were significantly reduced in magnitude by the filter. By considering reaction path diagrams, key reactions have been identified that are responsible for disparities between the desired filtered reaction rates and the reaction rates evaluated using quantities available in LES calculations (i.e. the filtered species and temperature). More specifically, the hydrogen abstraction reactions that take CH 4 to CH 3 (by O, H and OH) were found to have particularly enhanced reaction rates, and dominate the reaction path. Under the conditions presented, reaction paths were found to be independent of turbulence intensity. In general, the filtered reaction rates from the DNS were found to align more closely with the filtered laminar profile than the reaction rate of filtered species and temperature, (but disparities were found to decrease with increasing Karlovitz number). A simple model for scaling reaction rates is considered based on filtered laminar flame profiles, and the resulting reaction paths demonstrate proof-of-concept of a simple approach for formulating a reaction rate model for LES with finite-rate chemistry.