A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios

Jackson, Luke; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.006

Cited by 144 publications

(183 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…However, in their model they only accounted for the global mean SLR, although it is well known that SLR is geographically nonuniform, and they did not include the effect of land subsidence as reliable measurements were still not available, or the contribution of sea flooding to delta surface loss. Their results, even with these shortcomings, concluded that salt intrusion will affect rice crops, with economic losses over 20% under the worst SLR high‐end scenario of 1.8 m (Jackson & Jevrejeva, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol

Marcos

2018

JGR Oceans

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This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low‐lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi‐model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter‐annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind‐waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol

Marcos

2018

JGR Oceans

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“…Scenarios and projections accounting for the oceanic, mass exchange and solid earth deformation processes causing regional sea level variability are now widely available [8,[20][21][22][23][24][25][26] (Figure 4). However, coastal users in general still lack precise information to convert SLR from global models to a local on-shelf scale, including distortion of the SLR signal on continental shelves [135,136].…”

Section: Barriers To Providing Regional To Local Variability Of Sea Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, each source contributing to future SLR has a different probability distribution, with the longest tail probably being due to west Antarctic ice-sheet instability/melting. Due to the regional fingerprints of each contribution to sea level change, the regional probabilistic sea level projection will vary from place to place [8,25,26,156] ( Figures 4B,D and 5C). This means that new estimates for each of the contributions will also have different consequences on a regional level.…”

Section: Barriers To Providing Information On Uncertainties Of Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

Cozannet

Nicholls

Hinkel

et al. 2017

JMSE

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For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS). To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1) research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2) cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

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“…This agreement is not universal, however (e.g., Jackson & Jevrejeva, ), and may be misleading. The response of polar ice sheets to forcing remains an area of “ambiguity” and “deep uncertainty” (Heal & Millner, ; Kasperson, ), for which it is currently impossible to identify a uniquely “correct” probability distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections

et al. 2017

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Mechanisms such as ice‐shelf hydrofracturing and ice‐cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine‐based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea‐level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice‐sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global‐mean sea‐level (GMSL) and relative sea‐level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93–243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26–98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea‐level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post‐2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

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A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios

Cited by 144 publications

References 62 publications

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections

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