A probabilistic approach to predicting landslide runout based on an inventory of snowmelt-induced landslide disasters in Japan

Abstract

In this study, a probabilistic analysis to predict landslide runout based on an inventory of snowmelt-induced landslide disasters with consideration of differences in the topographic features of travel paths was conducted. The inventory included 76 landslides that occurred during snowfall/snowmelt periods between 1947 and 2012. These landslides were divided into three groups based on a topographic classification using GIS analysis. The probability of a landslide traveling for a specific distance and its traveling ratio were examined for each group by fitting the empirical cumulative distributions to exponential distribution functions. The fitted exponential distribution functions and outcomes of the estimations were very similar for landslides traveling along floodplain (FP) and slope (SL), despite differences in the slope gradients of the travel paths. The probability that landslide runout would exceed the criteria of the Sediement Disaster Prone Areas (SDPAs) was <1% for the FP and SL groups. In contrast, landslides traveling along headwater channel (HC) were likely to travel further than the criteria, particularly in landslide-initiated debris flows. Even if their travel distances was restricted to the movement of displaced mass by initial landslides, HC landslides tended to travel further than the other landslide groups.

Application of Soil Water Index to landslide prediction in snowy regions: sensitivity analysis in Japan and preliminary results from Tomsk, Russia

“…We selected Sekiyama region in Niigata Prefecture for the study area ( Fig. 2c) because the area is a snowy region and characterized by frequent snowmelt-driven landslide disasters (e.g., Kimura et al 2014). We obtained information on the location and date of the occurrence of snowmelt-driven landslide disasters from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and related websites.…”

GIS-based modeling of snowmelt-induced landslide susceptibility of sensitive marine clays

“…For instance, in the Clearwater River Basin in Central Idaho, Gorsevski et al (2000) used a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to derive analyses of snowmelt and rainfall triggered landslides on a small watershed named Rocky Point. Kimura et al (2014) used a probabilistic approach to estimate landslide hazard. According to the topography for the study area, GIS analysis was used to classify these landslides into three groups.…”