A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks

Abstract

Collision is a major type of accident in maritime transportation, which in the downstream of Yangtze River is even more pronounced due to specific features that have significant impact on the collision consequence, including a special lane for small-sized ships, traffic intensity variation with the tide period, many restricted areas, and emergency resources spread along the river. This article models the collision consequences in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks, considering the causation factors and including a novel approach for the emergency management of maritime accidents. The graphical structure lies on domain experts and on previous works, while the conditional probability tables are developed from historical data. Both the graphical structure and parameters are validated using the well-known methods, which reflects that the developed model is reasonable. The merits of the proposed consequence estimation model that considers emergency management includes (1) a detailed description of the collision accident development and (2) consequence estimation result with good accuracy.

Real-time collision risk based safety management for vessel traffic in busy ports and waterways

“…Based on the accident data, the probability and density of the accident can be analyzed, and the factors affecting the accident can also be mined. There are various forms of risk based on accident data, such as the annual accident probability (Jin et al, 2002); relative accident frequency (Bye and Almklov, 2019); the combination of probability accident and consequence (Wu et al, 2019); density of accidents (Zhang et al, 2021) and so on. The number of accidents can be used as an indicator of risk model verification (Rawson and Brito, 2021).…”

Shipping Accident Analysis in Restricted Waters: Lesson from the Suez Canal Blockage in 2021

“…In addition, there are few studies on risk assessment of maritime accidents with a focus on restricted waters. A BN model was constructed by domain experts and the Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) were developed from historical data, to model the collision consequences in downstream of the Yangtze River (Wu et al, 2020). The risk causal model in traffic-intensive waters was constructed to reveal the key risk causal transmission process (Chen et al, 2019).…”

Fuzzy logic based dynamic decision-making system for intelligent navigation strategy within inland traffic separation schemes

“…The downstream of Yangtze River is a typical waterway and has introduced the traffic separation scheme (Wu et al, 2019) since 2005. In July 2016, the channels have been enlarged and dredged to ensure the two-way traffic flow for 50, 000DWT ships.…”