A Probabilistic Dynamic Material Flow Analysis Model for Chinese Urban Housing Stock

Cao, Zhi; Shen, Lei; Zhong, Shuai; Liu, Litao; Kong, Hanxiao; Sun, Yingwei

doi:10.1111/jiec.12579

Cited by 48 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Likewise, the development patterns of per capita cement stocks generally comply with an S-shaped curve, and saturation is evident in several highly developed countries 1 . The saturation of per capita cement stocks implies that the growth rate of buildings and infrastructures in use (where cement stocks reside) will decrease marginally and eventually reach a plateau, as services provided by cement stocks become saturated 17 , 29 – 32 . Furthermore, as evidenced in several highly developed economies 1 , decreasing trends of per capita cement stocks have become manifest, reflecting that material efficiency strategies have come to play a significant role in these economies.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

et al. 2020

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Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO 2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand-and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO 2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO 2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

et al. 2020

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“…Existing literature on the future development of building stocks is often focused on the consequences for direct energy consumption (typically 20% of total end-use energy) (Sartori et al, 2009) , (Kavgic et al, 2010) , (V asquez et al, 2016). Studies that, in contrast, describe the materials used in the building construction often focus on a single country or region such as China (Cao et al, 2018) , (Huang et al, 2013) , (Hu et al, 2010) or within the Europe for example (Wiedenhofer et al, 2015;Sandberg et al, 2014). Some studies only address the historic development of in-use stocks (McMillan et al, 2010) , (Krausmann et al, 2017) , (Tanikawa et al, 2015), while the basis for studies dealing with future stock predictions varies from fixed average growth rates (Wiedenhofer et al, 2015), historic stock (Fishman et al, 2016) to population based growth, intensity of use curves (Hatayama et al, 2010) or by explicit modelling of lifestyle changes by modelling per capita floor space development (Müller, 2006;Daioglou et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling global material stocks and flows for residential and service sector buildings towards 2050

Deetman

Marinova

Voet

et al. 2020

Journal of Cleaner Production

142

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Residential buildings and service sector buildings have an important contribution to climate change, directly via energy use in these buildings and indirectly through construction activities and the production and disposal of buildings materials. In this paper, we introduce a model that looks at total global building stock for 26 regions between 1970 and 2050 and calculates the floor space and building materials both in new buildings and in demolished buildings. For residential buildings, we build upon the work of Marinova et al. (2019, this issue), who used a building material database to come up with scenarios for materials in the residential building stock. This paper adds two things. First, we introduce a new regression-based model for service building floor space, recognizing 4 different types of servicerelated buildings. Secondly, we use a dynamic stock model, based on lifetime distributions found in literature, to calculate the construction (inflow) and demolition (outflow) of building floor space for both residential and service-related purposes. We combine this with data from the building material database to come up with scenarios for the annual demand for construction materials worldwide as well as an estimation of the availability of waste materials after building demolition towards 2050. The model can thus be used to assess the potential for closing the material cycles in the construction sector, while distinguishing urban and rural areas explicitly. The results show that demand for construction materials will continue to increase in most regions, even in developed countries. Global demand for steel and cement for the building sector is estimated to be 769 Mt/yr and 11.9 Gt/yr respectively, by the end of the modelling period. This represents a respective growth of 31% and 14% compared to today. Drivers behind this are an expected growth of global residential building stock of about 50%, and a growth of about 150% in the building stock for services. Our model projects that by 2050, only 55% of construction-related demand for copper, wood and steel could potentially be covered by recycled building materials. For other materials the availability of scrap may be higher, reaching up to 71% of new demand in the case of aluminium. This means that in most regions urban mining cannot cover the growing demand for construction materials.

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“…Although urban dwellers have less floor space per person than rural dwellers [50,51], the ongoing transition of humanity to cities is not enough to counterbalance the overall trend of increasing per capita floor area. Scenarios of future residential buildings often assume that buildings will become more spacious [44,[52][53][54][55] which is detrimental to ME. In Switzerland, a continued growth of floor area by 20% until 2050 would lead to an increase in cumulated material-related GHG emissions of 8% compared to a baseline scenario [44].…”

Section: More Intensive Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review

Hertwich

Ali

Ciacci

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

306

164

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As one quarter of global energy use serves the production of materials, the more efficient use of these materials presents a significant opportunity for the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the renewed interest of policy makers in the circular economy, material efficiency (ME) strategies such as light-weighting and downsizing of and lifetime extension for products, reuse and recycling of materials, and appropriate material choice are being promoted. Yet, the emissions savings from ME remain poorly understood, owing in part to the multitude of material uses and diversity of circumstances and in part to a lack of analytical effort. We have reviewed emissions reductions from ME strategies applied to buildings, cars, and electronics. We find that there can be a systematic trade-off between material use in the production of buildings, vehicles, and appliances and energy use in their operation, requiring a careful life cycle assessment of ME strategies. We find that the largest potential emission reductions quantified in the literature result from more intensive use of and lifetime extension for buildings and the light-weighting and reduced size of vehicles. Replacing metals and concrete with timber in construction can result in significant GHG benefits, but trade-offs and limitations to the potential supply of timber need to be recognized. Repair and remanufacturing of products can also result in emission reductions, which have been quantified only on a case-by-case basis and are difficult to generalize. The recovery of steel, aluminum, and copper from building demolition waste and the end-of-life vehicles and appliances already results in the recycling of base metals, which achieves significant emission reductions. Higher collection rates, sorting efficiencies, and the alloy-specific sorting of metals to preserve the function of alloying elements while avoiding the contamination of base metals are important steps to further reduce emissions.

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A Probabilistic Dynamic Material Flow Analysis Model for Chinese Urban Housing Stock

Cited by 48 publications

References 53 publications

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

Modelling global material stocks and flows for residential and service sector buildings towards 2050

Material efficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with buildings, vehicles, and electronics—a review

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