A Probabilistic Estimate of the Most Perceptible Earthquake Magnitudes in the NW Himalaya and Adjoining Regions

Yadav, R. B. S.; Koravos, G. Ch.; Tsapanos, Theodoros M.; Vougiouka, G.

doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0864-1

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Our earthquake hazard assessment results from a comprehensive catalogue ranging from 1803-1999 and an updated set of probability models (including exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Weibull) are broadly consistent with the previous results (Parvez and Ram 1997;Shanker et al 2007;Yadav et al 2012aYadav et al , 2012bYadav et al , 2013aYadav et al , 2013bYadav et al , 2015. We found (using the best-fit exponentiated Weibull model) that the return period (one standard deviation above mean) of a magnitude 6.0 or higher event in the NW Himalayan region turns out to be about 15 years, and the cumulative probability of an earthquake reaches 0.92-0.95 after about 20-23 (2019-2022) years since the last strong Chamoli event in March 1999.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The study region partially overlaps with some of the zones as defined in previous studies viz. Parvez and Ram (1997), Shanker et al (2007), Yadav (2009), Yadav et al (2010aYadav et al ( , 2010bYadav et al ( , 2012aYadav et al ( , 2012bYadav et al ( , 2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015, and Chingtham et al (2016). In particular, Parvez and Ram (1997) found that the lognormal model comparatively fits better to the Hindukush region, and the region has reached to the highest conditional probability level for an elapsed time of 23 years (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…While Yadav et al (2010b) observed that the gamma model is the most suitable model, Pasari and Dikshit (2015a), from a comprehensive list of 11 probability models, remarked that the gamma, exponentiated exponential, and Weibull models provide the best fit to the observed interoccurrence times. In the northwest Himalaya and its vicinity, including part of India, Pakistan, Hindukush, Pamirs, Mongolia, and Tien-Shan, remarkable efforts towards probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard parameters are made by Parvez and Ram (1997), Shanker et al (2007), Yadav (2009), Yadav et al (2010aYadav et al ( , 2012aYadav et al ( , 2012bYadav et al ( , 2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015, and Chingtham et al (2016). Shanker et al (2007) used Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme value probability model in three seismotectonic zones in the Hindukush-Pamir northwest Himalaya region to assess time-dependent seismicity in these regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Analysis of time-dependent seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters (e.g. mean seismic activity rate, b-value of Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, and upper-bound or maximum regional magnitude) in 28 seismogenic source zones in the northwest Himalaya has been performed in a series of works by Yadav et al (2012aYadav et al ( , 2012bYadav et al ( , 2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015 using classical and Bayesian statistics, Kijko-Sellevol method, and Gumbel III distribution. The spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters including annual and 100-years mode of earthquake magnitude in northwest Himalaya was undertaken by Yadav et al (2012b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Later, Yadav et al (2012b) studied the spatial distribution of upperbound magnitude in different zones of NW Himalayan region and found that the maximum magnitude ranges from 6.4 to 8.0. Likewise, similar analysis including the most perceptible earthquake magnitude estimation was carried out in this direction by Yadav et al (2013aYadav et al ( , 2013bYadav et al ( , 2015 and Chingtham et al (2016) to refine the seismic hazards in the western-northwestern Himalayan region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic modelling of earthquake interoccurrence times in Northwest Himalaya and adjoining regions

Pasari

2018

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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This work concentrates on the distribution of earthquake interevent times in northwest Himalaya and its adjacent regions. We consider 12 timedependent probability distributions for analysis. The maximum likelihood estimation and Fisher information matrix-based methods are used to estimate model parameters and their respective uncertainties. Results from three model selection criteria suggest that the best fit arises from exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions. An intermediate fit comes from exponentiated Rayleigh, and lognormal distributions, whereas the remaining distributions exhibit a poor fit to the seismic interoccurrence times of present catalogue. Using exponentiated Weibull model, it is observed that the estimated cumulative probability of magnitude 6.0 or higher event in the northwest Himalaya reaches 0.92-0.95 after about 20-23 (2019-2022) years since the last event in 1999. The conditional probability, for an elapsed time of 19 years (i.e. 2018), reaches 0.90-0.95 after about 20-25 (2038-2043) years from now. A series of conditional probability curves is also presented to understand the recent and future earthquake hazard in the study region. This temporal evolution of seismic interevent times may provide important clues to the underlying physical mechanism of earthquake genesis in the northwest Himalaya region.

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