A probabilistic framework for correlated seismic downtime and repair cost estimation of geo‐structures

Abstract

SUMMARY An important component of probabilistic risk assessment methods is the development of models to quantify the direct consequences of damage to geo‐structural components for a given intensity of the hazard. This paper presents a general probabilistic framework for correlated repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures exposed to seismic hazards. The framework uses as input the results of nonlinear time‐history analysis of geo‐structures for the set of earthquake records that are representative of the seismic hazard models for the region of interest. The repair cost and downtime are estimated for individual earthquakes probabilistically considering the uncertainties associated with damage states. In addition, the formulation of the repair cost and downtime accounts for the reduction in the repair requirements as the number of damaged components in the given damage state increases. An analytical linear and two bilinear regression models are proposed for conditional correlated seismic repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures given the intensity measure. The proposed framework is demonstrated by developing seismic repair models of a typical pile‐supported wharf structure on the west coast of the United States. The presented framework is general and can be applied to other types of geo‐structures and hazards and can include other decision variables such as loss of life as well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A risk‐based life cycle cost strategy for optimal design and evaluation of control methods for nonlinear structures

“…In this study, soft soil conditions are assumed leading to ω g = 5 rad/s and ζ g = 0.2, according to Kiureghian and Neuenhofer. 40 The combined structure and Kanai-Tajimi model is then linearized using Lyapunov approach in Equation 23. For R-LQR, the control gain is determined using Equation 29c, where the matrix P R − LQR is controlled by the LQR design.…”

“…Assuming a Poisson distribution, the annual probability of at least 1 earthquake occurrence P (EQ) is expressed as where v EQ is the mean annual rate of hazard occurrence. To calculate the expected repair cost for hazard‐induced damage to structural systems, a number of studies, such as Applied Technology Council, Mackie et al, and Shafieezadeh et al, proposed frameworks that are based on detailed element‐level damage assessments. Using these procedures, functions have been derived for the estimation of system loss (or loss of functionality) for a number of sample structures (eg, Mackie et al, Shafieezadeh et al, Karamlou and Bocchini, and Shafieezadeh and Burden).…”

“…To calculate the expected repair cost for hazard‐induced damage to structural systems, a number of studies, such as Applied Technology Council, Mackie et al, and Shafieezadeh et al, proposed frameworks that are based on detailed element‐level damage assessments. Using these procedures, functions have been derived for the estimation of system loss (or loss of functionality) for a number of sample structures (eg, Mackie et al, Shafieezadeh et al, Karamlou and Bocchini, and Shafieezadeh and Burden). While conducting loss estimation via these frameworks yields more accurate hazard loss estimates, in this paper, for simplification and because of lack of availability of required data for the case study building, the 4 discrete system‐level damage states suggested by NIBS, FEMA, are considered for the calculation of C r .…”

“…Þis the standard deviation of u i , (i = 1, …, q), and is determined using the Lyapunov equation in Equation 23.…”

Nonlinear static analysis of a pile-supported wharf

“…the bridges, tunnels, wharf structures and various air-transportation structures), and estimating costs. These two aspects, mostly uncertain, are added to other ones as the seismic hazard, the material's nonlinear behaviour, the damage and the structural response [23]. Here the nonlinear static analysis, which is commonly known as "pushover analysis", has been defined.…”