A Probabilistic Framework for Optimizing Real-time Decisions in Humanitarian Aid Delivery Systems

Abstract

This paper presents a computationally efficient model for optimizing real-time decisions in humanitarian aid delivery systems. Our formulation models a hierarchical system and is a mixed integer, probabilistic, non-linear and non-concave optimization problem. The proposed model considers the costs and probabilistic nature of transfer times and maximizes the reliability of the system using the available budget. We account for late deliveries using a nonlinear penalty function. We also propose an algorithm that uses a directed acyclic graph to deal with the discrete variables in tandem with a homotopy method for optimizing the continuous variables. We then offer a pruning method to eliminate the cost inefficiencies in the system. The effectiveness of formulation is examined in some numerical examples in development.