A procedure for generating synthetic weather records in conjunction of climatic scenario for modelling of ecological impacts of changing climate in boreal conditions

Strandman, Harri; Väisänen, Hannu; Kellomäki, Seppo

doi:10.1016/0304-3800(93)90057-y

Cited by 50 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…There are different climate scenarios for climate change studies [37][38][39][40][41]. GCM based scenario [42,43] and Synthetic scenario [2] are often used to project future climate [38,41,44].…”

Section: General Circulation Model (Gcm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Worqlul

Taddele

Ayana

et al. 2018

Water

100

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This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period . The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons: 2020-2045, 2045-2070 and 2070-2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6 • C and 2.4 • C, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, although trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern, such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.

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Section: General Circulation Model (Gcm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GCM based scenario [42,43] and Synthetic scenario [2] are often used to project future climate [38,41,44]. This study used a general circulation model (GCM) based scenario to predicted the effect of future climate on the river flow.…”

Section: General Circulation Model (Gcm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Worqlul

Taddele

Ayana

et al. 2018

Water

100

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“…Climate data are also relevant for agricultural and ecological research [2,3], becoming critical inputs to forecast crop growth and development rates, as well as to model population dynamics of pest and diseases [4]. In addition, the data represent a baseline to assess global and local climate change effects [5]. However, climate information is not always available with the required spatial resolution and temporal coverage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 16 climate change effects [5]. However, climate information is not always available with the required spatial resolution and temporal coverage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile

Urdiales

Meza

Gironás

et al. 2018

Water

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Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs), have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate) of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM) using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index) as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values.

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“…In the ecosystem model, the dynamics of the ecosystem are directly linked to climate through photosynthesis, respiration and transpiration and indirectly through the hydrological and nitrogen cycles. A detailed description of the model is given below only with respect to the soil frost calculation, as a thorough discussion of the properties of the SOIL model utilised in the overall model has already been presented by Jansson (1991) and Kellomäki & Väisänen (1997).The forcing by atmospheric variables needed in the FinnFor model simulations are given by a weather simulator developed by Strandman et al (1993). The weather simulator outputs the data either with a time step of 1 h, or as a daily mean, depending on the variable.…”

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confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on soil frost under snow cover in a forested landscape

Venäläinen¹,

Tuomenvirta²,

Heikinheimo³

et al. 2001

Clim. Res.

117

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This study was aimed at assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the depth and duration of soil frost under snow cover in forests growing at different geographical locations in Finland. Frost simulations using a process-based forest ecosystem model (FinnFor) were made for Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. stands (height 17 m, stand density 1100 stems ha -1 ) growing on a moraine sandy soil. The climate change forecast used in the computations was based on the global ocean-atmosphere general circulation model HadCM2 that was dynamically downscaled to the regional level. The simulated climate warming during the winter months was about 4 to 5°C by the end of the 21st century. Frost simulations showed that the length of the soil frost period would lessen all over the country. Though winters will be warmer, the associated decrease in snow cover in southern Finland will increase the probability of frozen ground there in the middle of winter compared with the current climate. In central and northern Finland there will be so much snow, even in the future, that the maximum annual soil frost depth will decrease there.KEY WORDS: Climate change · Soil frost · Soil freezing · Snow cover · Hydraulic frost model · Scots pine Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 17: [63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72] 2001 The modelling of frost in the soil profile under snowfree surfaces can be done with the help of the frost sum and soil properties (e.g. Saarelainen 1992, McCormick 1993, Venäläinen et al. 2001. The frost sum is the sum of below-0°C daily mean temperatures calculated from the beginning of the frost period. In Scandinavia the frost period typically starts in October and ends in May, in northern Lapland in June. If there is snow on the ground, the modelling of soil temperature becomes more complex. Models must include many variables describing both meteorological conditions, such as air temperature, short and long wave radiation, amount and type of snow, and soil characteristics, such as thermal conductivity and soil heat capacity (e.g. Bonan 1991, Cox et al. 1999. The influence of snow cover on temperature is illustrated in Fig. 1. The daily variation of air temperature in the case of late winter conditions can be more than 20°C, whereas at a depth of 80 cm below the snow surface the daily cycle is practically negligible.Jansson (1991) introduced a comprehensive soil model known as SOIL that includes the processes relevant for the calculation of soil temperature. Kellomäki & Väi-sänen (1997) have integrated this SOIL model into a process-based forest ecosystem model (FinnFor), which links ecosystem dynamics with climate through selected physiological processes. Peltola et al. (1999) used this model when they studied the consequences of climate warming on soil frost and on the windthrow risk for trees in different geographical locations in Finland. Peltola et al. (1999) used 2 options for climate warming: the increase of temperature was estimated to be...

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A procedure for generating synthetic weather records in conjunction of climatic scenario for modelling of ecological impacts of changing climate in boreal conditions

Cited by 50 publications

References 9 publications

Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile

Impact of climate change on soil frost under snow cover in a forested landscape

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