A process for modeling short- and long-term risk in the southern Oregon Cascades

Roloff, Gary J.; Mealey, Stephen P.; Clay, C; Barry, Jeff; Yanish, Curt; Neuenschwander, Leon F.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2005.02.006

Cited by 38 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Wildfire was the dominant cause of habitat loss, although habitat increased under all scenarios, suggesting that it may be possible to both increase restoration and increase habitat for northern spotted owl in this landscape. Roloff et al (2005) modeled active management and no management in fire-prone landscapes in southwestern Oregon and found that active management in owl foraging areas reduced owl habitat compared with no management (only losses to wildfire). However, in a second analysis, Roloff et al (2012) found that active management "was more favorable to spotted owl conservation...than no management."…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Spies¹,

White²,

Ager³

et al. 2017

E&S

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. 2017. Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA. Ecology and Society 22 (1) ABSTRACT. Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees) and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus) was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than with management, despite the occurrence of high-severity wildfire. Our results and further applications of the model could be used in collaborative settings to facilitate discussion and development of policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Spies¹,

White²,

Ager³

et al. 2017

E&S

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“…In contrast, previous published assessments of fire on spotted owls have not explicitly considered fire and forest regrowth rates (Wilson and Baker 1998, Lee and Irwin 2005, Roloff et al 2005, 2012, Ager et al 2007, Lehmkuhl et al 2007. Not including the probability of high-severity fire, which is low, leads to highly inflated projections of the effects of thinning versus not thinning on high-severity fire (Rhodes andBaker 2008, Campbell et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous assessments of the efficacy of thinning treatments in reducing fire disturbances in spotted owl habitat (Wilson and Baker 1998, Lee and Irwin 2005, Roloff et al 2005, 2012, Ager et al 2007, Lehmkuhl et al 2007 have not incorporated the probability of high-severity fires occurring during the treatment lifespan. The effect of this is to overestimate treatment efficacy in potentially controlling fire or fire behavior (Rhodes and Baker 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Fire and Commercial Thinning on Future Habitat of the Northern Spotted Owl

Odion¹,

Hanson²,

DellaSala³

et al. 2014

TOORTHJ

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Abstract:The Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is an emblematic, threatened raptor associated with dense, late-successional forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Concerns over high-severity fire and reduced timber harvesting have led to programs to commercially thin forests, and this may occur within habitat designated as "critical" for spotted owls. However, thinning is only allowed under the U.S. Government spotted owl guidelines if the long-term benefits clearly outweigh adverse impacts. This possibility remains uncertain. Adverse impacts from commercial thinning may be caused by removal of key habitat elements and creation of forests that are more open than those likely to be occupied by spotted owls. Benefits of thinning may accrue through reduction in high-severity fire, yet whether the firereduction benefits accrue faster than the adverse impacts of reduced late-successional habitat from thinning remains an untested hypothesis. We found that rotations of severe fire (the time required for high-severity fire to burn an area equal to the area of interest once) in spotted owl habitat since 1996, the earliest date we could use, were 362 and 913 years for the two regions of interest: the Klamath and dry Cascades. Using empirical data, we calculated the future amount of spotted owl habitat that may be maintained with these rates of high-severity fire and ongoing forest regrowth rates with and without commercial thinning. Over 40 years, habitat loss would be far greater than with no thinning because, under a "best case" scenario, thinning reduced 3.4 and 6.0 times more dense, late-successional forest than it prevented from burning in high-severity fire in the Klamath and dry Cascades, respectively. Even if rates of fire increase substantially, the requirement that the long-term benefits of commercial thinning clearly outweigh adverse impacts is not attainable with commercial thinning in spotted owl habitat. It is also becoming increasingly recognized that exclusion of high-severity fire may not benefit spotted owls in areas where owls evolved with reoccurring fires in the landscape.

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“…Finney (2005) presented a simplified version of our approach using FARSITE to simulate fire risk on a 900 km 2 area near Missoula, Montana; 20,000 simulations were used in his example with a simplified weather scenario. Roloff et al (2005) also used FAR-SITE and other tools to estimate short-and long-term risk associated with fuel treatments in the southern Cascades of Oregon. Sixteen ignition points were used in the Roloff et al study.…”

Section: Simulation Of Fire Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Fire Danger in Hawai'i Using Limited Weather Data and Simulation

Weise

Stephens²,

Fujioka

et al. 2010

Pacific Science

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The presence of fire in Hawai'i has increased with introduction of nonnative grasses. Fire danger estimation using the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) typically requires 5 to 10 yr of data to determine percentile weather values and fire activity. The U.S. Army Pō hakuloa Training Area in Hawai'i is located in the interface zone between windward and leeward weather conditions and needed to develop fire danger values but did not have sufficient weather or fire occurrence data. Use of simulation to estimate fire danger (expressed as fire risk) for areas with limited weather data was investigated. Influence of spatial resolution of weather information on fire risk was examined by comparing fire risk calculated using one or three weather stations and gridded weather predictions from the Mesoscale Spectral Model. Predicted gridded temperature was positively correlated with observed temperature; predicted and observed relative humidity were not significantly correlated. Simulated fire risk differed between weather data percentiles and between weather data resolutions. Predicted risk estimated from gridded weather data agreed more closely with observed risk estimated from weather data observed at all three remote automated weather stations. Correlation between simulated fire risk and the NFDRS Ignition Component was statistically significant for the single weather station simulations. Correlations between risk and the Ignition Component were not statistically significant for the three station and gridded weather data scenarios, which illustrates the difference between fire danger determined at broad spatial scales and fire risk resolved at finer spatial scales. Fire spread simulation modeling to estimate fire risk in areas with limited historical weather and fire occurrence data can provide finer-scale information than the NFDRS, which is better suited to larger, homogeneous areas with more complete fire and weather data. Values for the NFDRS Burning Index were determined and incorporated into the wildland fire management plan for Pō hakuloa Training Area.

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A process for modeling short- and long-term risk in the southern Oregon Cascades

Cited by 38 publications

References 27 publications

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Effects of Fire and Commercial Thinning on Future Habitat of the Northern Spotted Owl

Estimation of Fire Danger in Hawai'i Using Limited Weather Data and Simulation

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