A process framework for integrating stressor-response functions into cumulative effects models

Jarvis, Lauren; Rosenfeld, Jordan; Gonzalez-Espinosa, Pedro C.; Enders, Eva C.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167456

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Throughout all analyses, we assumed no a priori knowledge about the functional form of relationships, so we did not force regression intercepts through the origin despite it being conceptually intuitive to do so; that is, a response should in principle be zero when no stressor is applied. Our modelling is therefore better viewed as a test for linear stressor-response relationships over a specific range of forestry intensity (5%-100% harvest) as opposed to a comprehensive exploration of different stressor-response functional forms across the full stressor gradient (Jarvis et al, 2024).…”

Section: Each Candidate Model Set Included An Intercept-only Model Wi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While mechanistic modelling approaches that incorporate hydrological processes are widely used, (e.g. MIKE SHE; Im et al, 2009), empirically based stressor-response relationships can be more tractable in many situations (Jarvis et al, 2024;Pirotta et al, 2022). Stressor-response relationships are often generated from data syntheses that aggregate responses across numerous case studies (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forestry impacts on stream flows and temperatures: A quantitative synthesis of paired catchment studies across the Pacific salmon range

Naman,

Pitman,

Cunningham

et al. 2024

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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Forestry is pervasive across temperate North America and may influence aquatic environmental conditions such as flows and temperatures, as well as important species such as Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). While there have been many large‐scale forestry experiments using paired catchment designs, these studies have yet to be quantitatively synthesized. Thus, it remains unclear whether forestry impacts are consistent, context‐dependent or unpredictable. This study aims to quantitatively synthesize forestry impacts on streamflow and temperature, through a systematic review and synthesis of paired catchment studies across the range of Pacific salmon. Specifically, we investigated whether generalizable relationships exist between forestry intensity (percent watershed harvested) and impacts to streamflow and temperature. We also examined whether watershed features (climate, hydrology and lithology) and harvest method mediated forestry impacts. We extracted information from 35 unique paired‐catchments from California to Alaska. Forestry had strong impacts on peak and low flows and maximum summer water temperatures, but responses were quite variable. Across all catchments, forestry elevated peak flows ~20% (n = 31 catchments), reduced low flows ~25% (n = 13 catchments) and increased maximum summer temperatures ~15% (n = 35 catchments) on average. However, these impacts were variable and were not predictable based on forestry intensity, thus broader stressor–response relationships were not supported. Forestry impacts on peak flows and maximum summer temperatures varied spatially. Peak flow impacts increased with northward latitude and temperature impacts decreased with eastward longitude. However, the magnitude of impacts were unrelated to other watershed attributes, which included climate (precipitation and aridity), rain versus snow hydrology, elevation and bedrock lithology. Harvest method and riparian buffer presence also had no detected effects on forestry impacts across studies and statistical models explained a low proportion of variation overall. Collectively, our results indicate that forestry can have substantial impacts on key environmental conditions; however, the magnitude of impact was variable and could not be clearly linked to easily measured watershed characteristics. This implies that forestry impacts may not be broadly predictable. Probabilistic risk models based on distributions of potential impacts may therefore be more useful for watershed management in data‐poor situations.

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Section: Each Candidate Model Set Included An Intercept-only Model Wi...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forestry impacts on stream flows and temperatures: A quantitative synthesis of paired catchment studies across the Pacific salmon range

Naman,

Pitman,

Cunningham

et al. 2024

Ecol Sol and Evidence

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Cumulative adversity and survival in the wild

Ortiz‐Ross,

Blumstein

2024

Ecology Letters

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Protecting populations contending with co‐occurring stressors requires a better understanding of how multiple early‐life stressors affect the fitness of natural systems. However, the complexity of such research has limited its advancement and prevented us from answering new questions. In human studies, cumulative risk models predict adult health risk based on early adversity exposure. We apply a similar framework in wild yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer). We tested cumulative adversity indices (CAIs) across different adversity types and time windows. All CAIs were associated with decreased pup survival and were well supported. Moderate and acute, but not standardized CAIs were associated with decreased lifespan, supporting the cumulative stress hypothesis and the endurance of early adversity. Multivariate models showed that differences in lifespan were driven by weaning date, precipitation, and maternal loss, but they performed poorly compared with CAI models. We highlight the development, utility, and insights of CAI approaches for ecology and conservation.

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Integrating social, climate and environmental changes to confront accelerating global aging

Hua,

Pan,

Fang

et al. 2024

BMC Public Health

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Introduction The global increase in the aging population presents critical challenges for healthcare systems, social security, and economic stability worldwide. Although the studies of the global rate of aging have increased more than four times in the past two decades, few studies have integrated the potential combined effects of socio-economic, climatic, and environmental factors. Methods We calculated the geographic heterogeneity of aging population growth rates from 218 countries between 1960 and 2022. Public databases were then integrated to assess the impacts of seven global stressors: socio-economic vulnerability, temperature, drought, seasonality, climate extremes, air pollution, and greening vulnerability on growth rates of aging population (a totally 156 countries). Linear regression models were primarily used to test the statistically significant effects of these stressors on the rate of aging, and multiple model inference was then used to test whether the number of stressors exceeding specific thresholds (e.g., > 25, 50, and 75%) was consistently significant in the best models. The importance of stressors and the number of stressors exceeding thresholds was verified using random forest models for countries experiencing different population aging rates. Results Our analysis identified significant heterogeneity in growth rates of aging population globally, with many African countries exhibiting significantly lower aging rates compared with Europe. High socio-economic vulnerability, increased climate risks (such as high temperature and intensive extreme climate), and decreased environmental quality were found to significantly increase growth rates of the aging population ( P < 0.05). The positive combined impacts of these stressors were diminished at medium–high levels of stressors (i.e., relative to their maximum levels observed in nature). The number of global stressors exceeding the 25% threshold emerged as an important predictor of global aging rates. Demographic changes in regions with relatively rapid aging (e.g., Africa and Asia) are more sensitive to climate change (e.g., extreme climate and drought) and the number of global stressors, and regions with low to medium rates of aging (e.g., Europe and the Americas) are more sensitive to socio-economic vulnerability and environmental stability (e.g., drought, green fragility and air pollution). Conclusions Our findings underscore that policy tools or methods must be developed that consider the holistic dimension of the global factor. Further investigations are essential to understand the complex interactions between multiple stressors and their combined effects on global aging. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-024-20346-7.

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A process framework for integrating stressor-response functions into cumulative effects models

Cited by 3 publications

References 86 publications

Forestry impacts on stream flows and temperatures: A quantitative synthesis of paired catchment studies across the Pacific salmon range

Forestry impacts on stream flows and temperatures: A quantitative synthesis of paired catchment studies across the Pacific salmon range

Cumulative adversity and survival in the wild

Integrating social, climate and environmental changes to confront accelerating global aging

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