A projection of lesser prairie chicken (&lt;em&gt;Tympanuchus pallidicinctus&lt;/em&gt;) populations range-wide

Cummings, Jonathan; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan; O'Meilia, Chris M.

doi:10.3133/ofr20171071

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Recent population-level studies based on lek-count survey data estimated a relatively stable population over the last 5 years [15,20] or stable with decreases through a 2012–2013 drought event [21]. Alternatively, studies using vital rate data from the same population (i.e., adult survival and fecundity) incorporated into a population viability analysis estimated declines in the population over the last decade with finite population growth rates <1 [16, 22]. Given such discrepancies in inference between approaches, better understanding of the limitations and strengths of current monitoring protocols is needed.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We developed a simulation approach to better understand how well lek count surveys estimate changes in population growth rate through time. Our work was motivated by the apparently contradictory findings of recent studies on lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympacnuchus pallidicinctus ; [15,16]). While one study found a stable population over the last several years based on male lek counts (2012–2016; [15]), the other predicted a high likelihood of extirpation of the lesser prairie-chicken from large portions of its range based on female vital rates [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our work was motivated by the apparently contradictory findings of recent studies on lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympacnuchus pallidicinctus ; [15,16]). While one study found a stable population over the last several years based on male lek counts (2012–2016; [15]), the other predicted a high likelihood of extirpation of the lesser prairie-chicken from large portions of its range based on female vital rates [16]. Ultimately, we were interested in determining if, due to observation error and variation in lek attendance, lesser prairie-chicken populations could exhibit a stable population growth rate based on lek-count data but have decreasing population growth rates when computed from vital-rate data (e.g., adult survival and fecundity).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens

2019

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Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection and availability for sampling. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitoring program when male-based surveys are used as an index for the total population. Often, male-based surveys are used for avian species, as males are conspicuous and more easily monitored than females. To determine if male-based lek surveys capture changes or trends in population abundance based on female survival and reproduction, we developed a virtual ecologist approach using the lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) as an example. Our approach used an individual-based model to simulate lek counts based on female vital rate data, included models where detection and lek attendance probabilities were <1, and was analyzed using both unadjusted counts and an N-mixture model to compare estimates of population abundance and growth rates. Using lek counts to estimate population growth rates without accounting for detection probability or density-based lek attendance consistently biased population growth rates and abundance estimates. Our results therefore suggest that lek-based surveys used without accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may miss important trends in population changes. Rather than population-level inference, lek-based surveys not accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may instead be better for inferring broad-scale range shifts of lesser prairie-chicken populations in a presence/absence framework.

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