The new local criterion for brittle fracture in probabilistic definition, which was used by the authors earlier for the K Ic (T) prediction, is modified for the case of non-isothermal non-monotonic loading. An approach is put forward which allows predicting the brittle fracture probability for cracked elements under complex thermomechanical loading typical, for example, of the case of emergency cooldown of a reactor pressure vessel. The approach has been verified by comparing the calculated and experimental data of assessment of the influence of various thermomechanical pre-loading modes on the fracture toughness of reactor pressure vessel steels.