A propagation model of ship collision causation based on complex network dynamics theory

Abstract

In order to reveal the ship collision causation propagation law, a ship collision causation propagation model is proposed in this paper based on the complex network dynamics theory. The model improved the Susceptible—Infected—Recovered (SIR) model and makes it applicable to the dynamic process of risk propagation. In order to apply the model to the actual network, we construct a ship collision causation network. The network is used as the simulation object of this study. The simulation results show that the causative nodes of different importance have the ability to propagate the risk to the whole network. The impact of accident causation can be reduced by shortening the inspection time of accident causation, reducing the risk propagation rate, increasing the risk control rate, and selecting appropriate initial control factors. The model can help to simulate the propagation of the causes of ship collisions, and can quantitatively analyze the impact of the causes on ship collisions.