ABSTRACT. Objective: In a search for viable endophenotypes of alcoholism, this longitudinal study attempted to identify premorbid predictors of alcohol dependence that also predicted the course of alcoholism. Method: The 202 male subjects who completed a 40-year follow-up were originally selected from a Danish birth cohort (N = 9,182). Two thirds of the subjects were high-risk biological sons of treated alcoholics. A large number of measures (361) were obtained at different periods before any subject had developed an alcohol-use disorder. At age 40, a psychiatrist provided mutually exclusive lifetime diagnoses of alcohol abuse or alcohol dependence that were characterized as currently active or currently in remission according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised, course specifi ers. Results: The majority of subjects with a diagnosis of alcohol abuse were in remission at age 40 compared with those with a diagnosis of alcohol dependence (88% vs. 58%). Treatment did not predict remission. Fourteen of the 18 predictors of remission that also predicted dependence were submitted to an exploratory factor analysis (varimax). Two premorbid dimensions were identifi ed: cognitive effi ciency and early behavioral dyscontrol in childhood. Both factors predicted the failure to remit (low cognitive effi ciency and high behavioral dyscontrol) even when lifetime alcoholism severity was controlled. Conclusions: This 4-decade study found a striking disconnect between measures that predicted alcohol dependence and measures that predicted remission from alcohol dependence. I N THE LAST 60 YEARS, prospective longitudinal studies have attempted to identify the premorbid antecedents of the alcohol-use disorders, especially alcohol dependence, by examining subjects before drinking problems began and following them into adulthood (Goodwin et al., 1994;Hill et al., 2000;Knop et al., 2003;Trim et al., 2010;Vaillant, 1995Vaillant, , 2003Zucker, 2006). The number of premorbid research domains that have been investigated is quite large and range from genetic, family history, and developmental domains through personality, social, and behavioral domains, to cultural and social context domains. These longitudinal studies have produced lists of replicated risk factors that are thought to function as premorbid predictors or markers of alcoholism. Among the best established of these premorbid risk factors are family history of alcoholism; male gender; behavioral deviance of all sorts in early childhood, especially that associated with impulsivity; unstable family environment; lower social class; high "innate" tolerance to the effects of alcohol; early age at onset of problem drinking; and peer pressure.It is frequently assumed that risk factors known to increase the probability of developing an alcohol-use disorder are the same as those that interfere with or impede the recovery from alcoholic drinking. Despite the seemingly reasonable assumption that premorbid risk factors also predict the course of alc...