A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Kok, Kasper; Priess, Joerg A.; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Holman, Ian P.; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, Adrian; Mouël, Chantal Le; Mathijs, Erik; Mehdi, Bano; Michetti, Melania; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øygarden, Lillian; Reidsma, P.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schönhart, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109701

Cited by 38 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…We augment the existing set of SSPs by systematically developing five storylines for European agriculture and food systems (Eur-Agri-SSPs) following a detailed and stakeholder inclusive step-by-step protocol ( Mitter et al, 2019 ). The Eur-Agri-SSPs describe alternative plausible future developments for the European agriculture and food systems advanced along the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation until 2050.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The article is structured as follows: in Section 2, we describe how the collected data were analyzed by following the nine transparent and stakeholder inclusive working steps of the Mitter et al (2019) protocol; in Section 3, we provide the main outcomes of the multi-year, participatory scenario development process; in Section 4, we discuss application potentials of the Eur-Agri-SSPs and major challenges encountered in the development process; and in Section 5 we conclude with lessons learned.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Mitter

Techen

Sinabell

et al. 2020

Global Environmental Change

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Highlights We present scenarios for European agriculture and food systems: the Eur-Agri-SSPs. The five Eur-Agri-SSPs describe plausible and consistent developments until 2050. We followed a nine-step protocol to ensure a systematic and transparent process. European stakeholders provided regional and thematic details and valuable feedback. The Eur-Agri-SSPs can inform integrated assessments, education, and policy making.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Mitter

Techen

Sinabell

et al. 2020

Global Environmental Change

Self Cite

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“…Pfau et al 2014;Eyvindson et al 2018). Hence, we need to be prepared for contrasting perspectives and outcomes, which makes the chosen scenario approach (O'Neill et al 2017;Kok et al 2019;Mitter et al 2019;Rakovic et al 2020) useful, but not necessarily a one-off exercise. Scenario development will likely become an ongoing exercise as we gradually increase our knowledge about what land use changes we may expect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Catchment effects of a future Nordic bioeconomy: From land use to water resources

Skarbøvik

Jordan

Lepistö

et al. 2020

Ambio

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In the future, the world is expected to rely increasingly on renewable biomass resources for food, fodder, fibre and fuel. The sustainability of this transition to bioeconomy for our water systems depends to a large extent on how we manage our land resources. Changes in land use together with climate change will affect water quantity and quality, which again will have implications for the ecosystem services provided by water resources. These are the main topics of this Ambio special issue on “Environmental effects of a green bio-economy”. This paper offers a summary of the eleven papers included in this issue and, at the same time, outlines an approach to quantify and mitigate the impacts of bioeconomy on water resources and their ecosystem services, with indications of useful tools and knowledge needs.

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“…The use of narratives to describe future pathways in this project was chosen as we believed this would allow for a greater role for qualitative interpretation and could also support BIOWATER researchers with a framework for providing high resolution data to be used in existing catchmentscale, process-based models. In contrast with the more generalized objectives of other studies (e.g., Kok et al 2019;Mitter et al 2019), the focus on meeting these particular needs led to a decision to work with a subset of the SSP elements. Figure 1 describes the structural flow of moving from the global (qualitative) to the local (quantitative) in the BIOWATER work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management

Raković

Futter

Kyllmar

et al. 2020

Ambio

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Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

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A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Cited by 38 publications

References 85 publications

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Catchment effects of a future Nordic bioeconomy: From land use to water resources

Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management

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