A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey

Öztürk, Serkan; Bayrak, Yusuf; Çınar, Hakan; Koravos, G. Ch.; Tsapanos, Theodoros M.

doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9234-6

Cited by 43 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…These constants can also be estimated with the help of famous Gutenberg and Richter relationship (1956) and related to its constants a and b by equations a = (ln a/ln 10) and b = (b/ln10). However, the constants, estimated using approach of Gumbel's extreme value distribution, are more significance and they are better related to the tectonics of the study region (Makropoulos and Burton 1984;Tsapanos and Burton 1991;Ö ztrürk et al 2008). A plot of largest annual magnitude (m) versus observed probability (G) estimated by three approaches can be seen in Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Nordquist (1945) attempted this theory first time for the earthquakes in southern California and for the largest earthquakes in the world. After that a number of researchers of the world applied this method in different regions (Gayskiy and Katok 1965 in Soviet Union;Epstein and Lomnitz 1966 in America;Dick 1965 in New Zealand;Milne and Devenport 1969 in Canada;Hubernova 1968 andSchenkova andKarnik 1970 in Europe;Shakal and Willis 1972 in North Circum-Pacific seismic belt; Rao and Rao 1979;Goswami and Sarmah 1983;Singh 1997 andShanker et al 2007 in India and adjoining region; Bayrak et al 2005 andÖ ztrürk et al 2008 for Turkey region).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

et al. 2010

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The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M w 4.0-7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°-32°N and 87°-100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M C 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

et al. 2010

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“…Bayrak et al [30] evaluated the seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters of Turkey based on maximum regional magnitude. Öztürk et al [31] estimated the mean return periods, the most probable magnitude in a time period of t-years, and the probability of earthquake occurrence for a given magnitude during a time span of t-years for different regions in and around Turkey. They also showed that in the specific region, the most probable earthquake magnitude in the next 100 years would be over 7.5.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Frequency, Magnitude and Recurrence of Extreme Earthquakes in Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea

Baaqeel¹,

Quliti²,

Daghreri³

et al. 2016

OJER

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Humans coexist with extreme events all the time, only when the intensity of the event becomes greater than a certain level there is a resulting disaster. Small earthquakes occur all of the time with no adverse effects. Only large earthquakes cause disasters. Statistical analysis reveals that larger events occur less frequently than small events. In a year, we would have many values for the events; the annual maximum was the greatest of those values. Within an annual series, only the largest value per year is allowed, even if an additional significant peak occurs. As the magnitude of a hazardous increases, the frequency of occurrence (how often a given magnitude is equaled or exceeded) decreases. Thus, major disasters result from a small number of large events that rarely occur. A plot of recurrence intervals versus associated magnitudes produces a group of points that also approximates a straight line on semi-logarithmic paper. Therefore, past records of earthquakes at the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea for months from May, 1999 to Feb, 2016 are used to predict future conditions concerning the annual frequency, the return period, the percentage probability for each event, and the probability of a certain-magnitude earthquake occurring in the region during any period.

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“…There exist a lot of regional and temporal studies on the space-time characteristics of earthquake activity for different parts of the world, and many authors obtained important outcomes and conclusions by using scaling laws (e.g., Utsu, 1971;Mandelbrot, 1982;Habermann, 1983;Hirata, 1989;Frohlich and Davis, 1993;Wiemer and Wyss, 2000;Awad, 2005;Öztürk et al, 2008;Öncel and Wilson, 2007;Roy et al, 2011;Öztürk, 2011;Ali, 2016). The Albania region is seismically active with tens of destructive large earthquakes over the past twenty centuries as revealed from the historical sources (Sulstarova et al, 1980;Ormeni, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal analysis of recent seismicity in different parts of the Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra Transversal Fault Zone, Albania

Ormeni¹,

Öztürk²,

Fundo³

et al. 2018

AJES

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Spatial and temporal evaluation of current seismic activity throughout the Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra (VLED) transversal fault zone were carried out at the beginning of year 2016. The seismotectonic b-value, fractal dimension Dc-value and precursory seismic quiescence Z-value are considered for a detailed statistical analysis. Completeness magnitude Mc-value varies from 2.5 to 2.7 for different parts of the VLED fault zone. The b-value is calculated as 1.10±0.04 for the south western part and 1.13±0.05 for the middle part, whereas it is estimated as 0.94±0.07 for the north eastern part of the study region. These results reveal that b-values for all regions are well represented by a b-value typically close to 1.0. There are clear decreasing trends in temporal changes of b-values before the occurrences of some strong main shocks. On the contrary, no earthquakes are observed in some periods after decrease of b-value. Dc-values are computed as 2.66±0.04 for the south western part, 2.64±0.03 for the middle part and 2.15±0.02 for the north eastern part of the VLED fault zone. These rather large values show that earthquake activity is more clustered at larger scales or in smaller areas in the study area.Considering the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a precursor of the main earthquakes gives successful outcomes in defining the potential anomalies and possible locations of future earthquakes. Quiescence analysis of current seismicity at the beginning of 2016 in the VLED fault zone is performed with the test of standard normal deviate Z-value. Distributions of resulting Z-values show six anomalous regions along the different parts of the VLED fault zone. These quiescence areas are detected at (i) 40.81ºN-19.86ºE (including Kuc-Bubullim, southeast of Lushnja town), (ii) 41.00ºN-20.01ºE (in the Cerriku, south of Elbasani town), (iii) 41.31ºN-20.13ºE (around Bene-Qafe, northeast of Elbasani town), (iv) 41.43ºN-20.21ºE (Krasta-Batra, south of Bulqiza town), (v) 41.28ºN-20.49ºE (including Carrishta-Stebleve, northeast of Librazhdi town), (vi) 41.51ºN-20.51ºE (including Qerrenec-Gjorica, west of Dibra town). As an important result, analyses of spatial and temporal characteristics of the earthquake activity may supply significant clues for revealing the future seismic hazard along the VLED fault zone, and these anomaly regions may be interpreted as the locations of next possible earthquakes.

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A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey

Cited by 43 publications

References 36 publications

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

Estimating the Frequency, Magnitude and Recurrence of Extreme Earthquakes in Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea

Spatial and temporal analysis of recent seismicity in different parts of the Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra Transversal Fault Zone, Albania

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