A quantitative interpretation of the entry section of the EPPO decision‐support scheme for pest risk analysis

Abstract

The development of methods to combine components of risk and their associated uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) has received attention in a number of recent European projects. Many of the risk components distinguished in the EPPO Decision support scheme (DSS) for PRA are usually difficult to quantify but when there is detailed knowledge of the pest and pathway, quantification may be possible to a limited extent for the pest entry section of the scheme. The European Food Safety Authority has recently commissioned a project to investigate approaches to quantitative pathway analysis for pests of commodities entering and moving within the EU (QPA-Food); a sister project concerns non-food commodities. This paper illustrates the potential for a quantitative pathway model based closely on the Entry Section of the EPPO DSS for PRA, where existing quantitative definitions of rating categories have been used as a basis to estimate the proportion and number of infested lots on a pathway. Such quantification may provide additional insights without requiring substantial changes to the information elicited via the DSS.

Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains

“…Recent work to improve European decision‐support schemes in PRA––“Prima phacie” and “PRATIQUE”––used networks analogous to Bayesian networks but with parameterization made possible by offering users choices from restricted sets of probability distributions that had direct correspondence to an existing risk‐rating system with which PRA practitioners were already familiar. In these projects, parameterization was also made easier by designing the network such that each child node had no more than two parents, so keeping the CPTs more manageable . Here also, by restricting the CPTs defining the child nodes to two parents and by using consistent assumptions throughout, the model can be described by a small set of tables or matrices; only four of these are used in the model (Table ).…”

A quantitative model for trade pathway analysis of plant pest entry and transfer to a host in European Union territory

“…Analysing pest interceptions on pathways can identify routes for pest entry that may require risk management measures to mitigate the likelihood of pest entry (MacLeod, ). Pest risks are rarely fully evaluated quantitatively, although when there is detailed knowledge of the pest and pathway quantification of the risk of entry may be possible (Holt et al ., ).…”

“…Analysing pest interceptions on pathways can identify routes for pest entry that may require risk management measures to mitigate the likelihood of pest entry (MacLeod, 2015). Pest risks are rarely fully evaluated quantitatively, although when there is detailed knowledge of the pest and pathway quantification of the risk of entry may be possible (Holt et al, 2014). This paper describes the development of a quantitative pathway model examining the likelihood of pest arrival and transfer to a host via trade in specific host commodities.…”