A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Ping; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yamin; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wang, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Lin, Gao; X, Pan

doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1988-2

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Facing the severe challenge of global warming, the number of catastrophic agrometeorological disasters will increase [6,7], the risks of climate change on food production will increase [8,9], and it will become more difficult to guarantee food security [10,11]. The assessment of climate change impact is an important link and foundation of the assessment of climate change risk [12][13][14]. Understanding the sensitivities of different varieties of crop yields to the impacts of historical climate Atmosphere 2021, 12, 172 2 of 16 change is essential for scientifically and rationally assessing climate change impacts and appropriately instituting measures to prevent climate change risks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Chou

Yang

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Chou

Yang

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Wuchuan County (40 1), where the average annual mean temperature and precipitation are about 3.1 • C and 344 mm, respectively. The annual accumulative temperature above 0 • C is about 2578 • C•day, and the average number of frost-free days is about 124 [27]. The soil type is mainly chestnut with high sediment concentrations in the arable layer [28].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The soil type is mainly chestnut with high sediment concentrations in the arable layer [28]. The rain-fed farming with a single mature season per year is the main farming practice [27] and potato is the major staple crop planted in this area.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Change Characteristics and Interactions of Soil Moisture and Temperature in the Farmland in Wuchuan County, Inner Mongolia, China

Zhang

Pan

et al. 2020

Atmosphere

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Soil moisture and temperature are both significant factors for crop growth and development. They are also the main influencing factors of regional climate change. In the context of climate change, the relationship between soil moisture and soil temperature is not only important for explaining the mechanism of moisture and temperature interaction, but also provides scientific suggestions for agricultural production. Since the accurate measurement of soil moisture and temperature is difficult, their relationship remains poorly understood. Here, based on real-time field observation in a potato field in Wuchuan County, Inner Mongolia, China, the change characteristics of soil moisture and temperature under different water level treatments were analyzed, and their relationships were disclosed. The results show that there was an inverse proportional relationship between soil moisture and temperature. With an increase of soil moisture, soil temperature decreased. The basic relation between soil moisture and temperature took the form of reciprocal functions (Q = 4.2 × 103 V × (0.2 + W) × ΔT). The decline of soil moisture in the farmland will increase the soil temperature and has a negative impact on land–atmosphere interactions. The results can provide important insight into regional climate change mechanisms.

show abstract

A quantitative method for determining the impact threshold of climate change for agriculture

Dong

Pan

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

Cited by 10 publications

References 7 publications

Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

The Change Characteristics and Interactions of Soil Moisture and Temperature in the Farmland in Wuchuan County, Inner Mongolia, China

A quantitative method for determining the impact threshold of climate change for agriculture

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About