A quantitative risk analysis model considering uncertain information

He, Rui; Li, Xinhong; Chen, Guo-Ming; Wang, Yanchun; Jiang, Shengyu; Zhi, Chenxiao

doi:10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.029

Cited by 57 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Zadeh to solve the problem of uncertainty or fuzziness [40]. According to the recent studies, ZFNs and TFNs are simple and efficient methods to describe the uncertainty and fuzziness problems [41][42][43]. In addition, these values facilitate the smooth transition in the process of translating the qualitative linguistic variables of a specific failure probability into a single value.…”

Section: Fuzzy Eory Fuzzy Theory Is a Methods Proposed Bymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Fan

et al. 2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Oxygen lances (OLs) are important devices used in converter steel making. However, the occurrence of OL burning loss (OLBL) failure may lead to explosion accidents. To better prevent OLBL failure, it is necessary to perform a probabilistic assessment. Bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory was proposed to assess OLBL, which represents a hazardous event. In this paper, fuzzy theory based on triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) was applied to calculate the failure data. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) in combination with the improved similarity aggregation method (ISAM) was employed to reduce the error generated due to the subjective judgement of experts. Furthermore, a comprehensive importance analysis method was developed to rank the importance of basic events (BEs), facilitating the adoption of the corresponding safety decisions. When performing fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA), the occurrence probability of outcome events (OEs) was determined by conducting a layer of protection analysis (LOPA). Finally, safety measures were proposed based on the assessment results to achieve safe production. The results indicated that the use of bow-tie analysis is appropriate to perform qualitative and quantitative assessment. Through bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory, the occurrence probability of OLBL was determined to be in the interval (5.34E − 02, 2.69E − 01). By adding independent protective layers (IPLs), the occurrence probability of OEs caused by OLBL can be effectively reduced.

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Section: Fuzzy Eory Fuzzy Theory Is a Methods Proposed Bymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Fan

et al. 2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…Compared with the conventional methods, e.g., FT, ET, and BT, BN considers conditional dependencies and describes the interrelationship among nodes. The significant advantage of BN is that the probability assigned to a node can be updated given the observed new evidence (He et al, 2018). Therefore, BN is utilized to construct the relationship among variables and solve the model uncertainty.…”

Section: Step 4: Dynamic Quantitative Accident Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic probability assessment of urban natural gas pipeline accidents considering integrated external activities

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2021

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

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Urban gas pipelines usually have high structural vulnerability due to long service time. The locations across urban areas with high population density make the gas pipelines easily exposed to external activities. Recently, urban pipelines may also have been the target of terrorist attacks. Nevertheless, the intentional damage, i.e. terrorist attack, was seldom considered in previous risk analysis of urban gas pipelines. This work presents a dynamic risk analysis of external activities to urban gas pipelines, which integrates unintentional and intentional damage to pipelines in a unified framework. A Bayesian network mapping from the Bow-tie model is used to represent the evolution process of pipeline accidents initiating from intentional and unintentional hazards. The probabilities of basic events and safety barriers are estimated by adopting the Fuzzy set theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis (HBA). The developed model enables assessment of the dynamic probabilities of consequences and identifies the most credible contributing factors to the risk, given observed evidence. It also captures both data and model uncertainties. Eventually, an industrial case is presented to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed methodology. It is observed that the proposed methodology helps to more accurately conduct risk assessment and management of urban natural gas pipelines.

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“…In order to simplify Equation 15, firstly the evaluation value of alternative s i under reference point approach can be computed by Equation 16:…”

Section: Multimoora Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 A systematic probabilistic risk assessment technique typically is based on four steps as hazard analysis, consequence and likelihood analysis, risk estimation, and risk reduction. [12][13][14][15] However, most of the aforementioned studies merely focus on the first three steps and almost failed to talk about how decision makers can reduce the estimated risk of an undesired event in the studied system. Many scholars have been used the probabilistic risk assessment techniques in different industrial sectors, which help decision makers for risk and safety assessment of an undesired event, eg, FTA, 6-8 ETA, 9,10 Bow-tie, 11,12 and Bayesian updating mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many scholars have been used the probabilistic risk assessment techniques in different industrial sectors, which help decision makers for risk and safety assessment of an undesired event, eg, FTA, [6][7][8] ETA, 9,10 Bow-tie, 11,12 and Bayesian updating mechanism. [12][13][14][15] However, most of the aforementioned studies merely focus on the first three steps and almost failed to talk about how decision makers can reduce the estimated risk of an undesired event in the studied system. In this accordance, decision-makers need to provide some intervention as mitigative and corrective actions to improve safety performance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A perceptual computing–based method to prioritize intervention actions in the probabilistic risk assessment techniques

Yazdi

2019

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Probabilistic risk assessment techniques as the systematic tools have been widely used on the different type of industrial sectors to reduce the estimated risk to an acceptable level. The fact is to design inherently safety; hazards have to be eliminated and reduced in risk as much as possible with the consideration of several interventions. In this regard, multicriteria decision making (MCDM) science is commonly integrated with the probabilistic risk assessment techniques to improve the safety performance of a system. Thus, it has been widely used to assist decision makers in controlling the identified process hazards in a different type of engineering applications. However, by increasing the complexity of industrial sectors as well as human being judgments, typical MCDM methods cannot highly guarantee their output results. According to this point, proposing MCDM methods based on mathematical programming have been interested in scholars due to high reliability and feasibility of the results. In this paper, we extended integration of MULTIMOORA approach with the Choquet integral under subjectivity circumstances to prioritize corrective actions in a typical probabilistic risk assessment technique. To illustrate the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed method, it has been applied in a real case study.

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A quantitative risk analysis model considering uncertain information

Cited by 57 publications

References 31 publications

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Risk Assessment of Oxygen Lance Burning Loss Using Bow-Tie Analysis Based on Fuzzy Theory

Dynamic probability assessment of urban natural gas pipeline accidents considering integrated external activities

A perceptual computing–based method to prioritize intervention actions in the probabilistic risk assessment techniques

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