A Quantitative Study of the Occurrence of a Railway Accident Based on Belief Functions

Aguirre, Felipe; Sallak, Mohamed; Schön, Walter; Belmonte, Fabien

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-29461-7_51

Cited by 1 publication

(5 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Inspired by some real case studies from French land transport accident investigation bureau , Aguirre et al proposed a hypothetical scenario of a near head‐to‐head railway encounter as shown in Figure .…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As analyzed by Aguirre et al, this near accident happened because of 3 basic events: Bad change of parking plans (BD): The modified parking plans were unsafe. ‐Delay on works (DW): The maintenance work was delayed. ‐Noisy environment (NE): The environment was noisy, and the foreman needed to make the decision in a noisy environment that made the communication with the traffic agent difficult. ‐Traffic agent confirmation (TC): The traffic agent confirmed that the new plan was feasible.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of the lack of historical data, the precise occurrence probabilities of the causes are difficult to be obtained. Therefore, Aguirre et al proposed interval values of the occurrence probabilities of the causes as follows:

\begin{matrix} p_{D W} & = false[0.1, 0.2 false], \\ p_{N E} & = false[0.6, 0.7 false], \\ p_{T C} & = false[0.7, 0.8 false], \\ p_{B R} & = false[0.5, 0.9 false], \\ p_{A T} & = false[0.1, 0.2 false], \\ p_{P C} & = false[0.9, 0.95 false] . \end{matrix}

No further information about the causes is given; therefore, we assume that the occurrence probabilities of the causes are uniformly distributed in these intervals. The ROBDD of this near accident is given in Figure .…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As analyzed by Aguirre et al, 21 this near accident happened because of 3 basic events: ity, it was not, but the foreman trusted the traffic agent.…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of the lack of historical data, the precise occurrence probabilities of the causes are difficult to be obtained. Therefore, Aguirre et al 21 No further information about the causes is given; therefore, we assume that the occurrence probabilities of the causes are uniformly distributed in these intervals. The ROBDD of this near accident is given in Figure 20.…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Occurrence Probability Of Accidents Withoumentioning

confidence: 99%

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Binary decision diagram–based methods for risk assessment of systems subject to propagated failures and parametric uncertainties

Qiu

Ming

2018

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Propagated failures between components mean that the failure of one component may cause the failures of other components within the system. Because propagated failures contribute greatly to the system unavailability, it is important to take into account propagated failures between components when modeling systems. Sometimes, it may be difficult to obtain the precise values of some parameters due to many reasons, such as the insufficiency of historical data and the randomness of statistical data. In this case, interval values can be given instead of precise values to represent the parametric uncertainty related to the values of parameters. This paper proposes explicit and implicit binary decision diagram–based methods to model systems subject to propagated failures and to evaluate the failure probability of systems under parametric uncertainty. The proposed methods are applied to a near head‐to‐head railway accident to evaluate the occurrence probability of accidents.

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Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

\begin{matrix} p_{D W} & = false[0.1, 0.2 false], \\ p_{N E} & = false[0.6, 0.7 false], \\ p_{T C} & = false[0.7, 0.8 false], \\ p_{B R} & = false[0.5, 0.9 false], \\ p_{A T} & = false[0.1, 0.2 false], \\ p_{P C} & = false[0.9, 0.95 false] . \end{matrix}

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As analyzed by Aguirre et al, 21 this near accident happened because of 3 basic events: ity, it was not, but the foreman trusted the traffic agent.…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Evaluation Of the Occurrence Probability Of Accidents Withoumentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Binary decision diagram–based methods for risk assessment of systems subject to propagated failures and parametric uncertainties

Qiu

Ming

2018

Quality & Reliability Eng

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

A Quantitative Study of the Occurrence of a Railway Accident Based on Belief Functions

Cited by 1 publication

References 15 publications

Binary decision diagram–based methods for risk assessment of systems subject to propagated failures and parametric uncertainties

Binary decision diagram–based methods for risk assessment of systems subject to propagated failures and parametric uncertainties

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