2018
DOI: 10.1111/manc.12233
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A Quasi Real‐Time Leading Indicator for the EU Industrial Production

Abstract: We build a quasi‐real‐time leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (EU IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper gives rise to an ex‐ante LI that is immune to ex‐post revisions in constituent variables and, thus, does not suffer from overlapping information drawbacks. Moreover, the set of variables used to construct the LI relies on a two‐step dynamic and systematic statistical procedure. This approach ensures that the choice of the variables is not driven by… Show more

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