A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe

Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S.

doi:10.5194/npg-30-63-2023

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…In the case of cold days, however, the large-scale circulation might contribute to approximately 50% of their observed decrease. Similarly, Deser and Phillips (2023) found that large-scale circulation contributes to a third of the mean winter temperature trend in Europe over the last decades. As large-scale circulation variability is likely to be largely internal in origin, this result may have implications for near-term projections.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Finally, we investigate to what extent the regional atmospheric circulation and its variability contribute to the past evolution of compound low wind and cold events in France. Several studies found that recent changes in the large-scale circulation play a role in the winter trend in mean temperature across Europe (Deser and Phillips, 2023;Sippel et al, 2020;Saffioti et al, 2016), and in the decreasing occurrence and intensity of cold extremes (Horton et al, 2015;Terray, 2021). Using a dynamical adjustment approach based on observation data (Terray, 2021), we explore the role of the changes in atmospheric circulation in the observed trend in compound low wind and cold events in France.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation

Collet,

Bador,

Boé

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. To reach climate mitigation goals, the share of wind power in the electricity production is going to increase substantially in France. In winter, low wind days are challenging for the electricity system if compounded with cold days that are associated with peak electricity demand. The scope of this study is to characterize the evolution of compound low wind and cold events in winter over the 1950–2022 period in France. Compound events are identified at the daily scale using a bottom-up approach based on two indices that are relevant to the French energy sector, derived from temperature and wind observations. The frequency of compound events shows high interannual variability, with some winters having no event and others having up to 13, and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. Based on a k-means unsupervised classification technique, four weather types are identified, highlighting the diversity of synoptic situations leading to the occurrence of compound events. The weather type associated with the highest frequency of compound events presents pronounced positive sea-level pressure anomalies over Iceland and negative anomalies west of Portugal, limiting the entrance of the westerlies and inducing a north-easterly flow bringing cold air over France and Europe generally. We further show that the atmospheric circulation and its internal variability are likely to play a role in the observed reduction in cold days, suggesting that this negative trend may not be entirely be driven by anthropogenic forcings. Despite this suggested role for cold days, the observed decrease in compound events does not seem to be strongly influenced by the regional atmospheric circulation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation

Collet,

Bador,

Boé

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The calculation of the climate used here has a dependence on the size of the rolling window, which was primarily based on expert judgement. A longer timeseries, covering many decades, could be used for a cross-validation check to obtain the optimum rolling window size, but the data source should be selected with great care, due to potential inconsistencies [39,45,46]. In previous work a climatic definition on harmonics has been effective [47][48][49], but we found it unsuitable here (see SI section A.3).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi)

Stoop,

van der Wiel,

Zappa

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. For this we introduce the smooth, yet physical, hourly rolling window climatology that captures the expected hourly to yearly behaviour of renewable resources. We analyse the presented index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales for a sample region and discuss scientific and practical implications.CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of energy-meteorological variability on future energy system. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks.

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“…That is, we linearly estimate the percentile that corresponds to a 119-year event (the best-estimate return time of winter 1963, see below) in the winter temperature distribution, with a co-variate on global mean temperature change. The CESM2 model is used as it is shown to perform very well for European regional climate (Deser and Phillips, 2023). This analysis reveals that cold winter events with a 119-year return period over Germany amplify by 1.6 • C per degree of global mean warming.…”

Section: Cesm2 Amplification Of Tail Events To Translate the 1963 Win...mentioning

confidence: 99%

An extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 is unlikely but still possible despite climate change

Sippel,

Barnes,

Cadiou

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Central European winters have warmed markedly since the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associated with severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipate storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions, and to understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as the coldest winter in the historical record of Germany in 1963 (−6.3 °C or −3.4σ seasonal DJF temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is still possible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal cold anomaly of about −4.9 to −4.7 °C (best estimates across methods) under present-day climate. This would rank as second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second, we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions based on two independent rare event sampling methods (climate model boosting and empirical importance sampling): winter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in Central Europe today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazards become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate overall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of an extreme cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation and increased vulnerability.

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A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe

Cited by 21 publications

References 85 publications

Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation

Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation

The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi)

An extreme cold Central European winter such as 1963 is unlikely but still possible despite climate change

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