A re-examination of the space debris problem using systems thinking

Abstract

Artificial satellites have enormous advantages, resulting in a massive increase in launches. As of January 2022, approximately 4852 operational satellites were orbiting Earth, assisting humans in communication, technology development, space observation, and earth science. Among the cataloged objects in space, only 20% are operational satellites, with the rest being debris. This debris poses a danger to active satellites and limits the orbital space for new satellite launches. These non-functional, fast-moving debris pieces may trigger collisions and potentially create new fragments of space junk. Most countries striving to exploit outer space have neglected the long-term consequences as explained by the tragedy of the Commons archetype. This study examines how the space race led to the specific issue of orbital debris using a systems thinking approach. Using counter-intuitiveness, causal loop diagrams (CLD), systemigrams, and archetypes as systems thinking methods and concepts to explain the space debris challenge. The systems thinking tools used in this study attempt to highlight the current space debris problem and the lack of a clear policy framework to mitigate the severity of the problem. Even though many private organizations and some space agencies are conceptualizing ideas to remove debris from space, the major issues in resolving this problem are time, cost, and uncertainty. Our findings highlight the importance of addressing the issue at the technological, system engineering, and policy levels.