Grapevine downy mildew (GDM), caused by Plasmopara viticola (P. viticola), is a frequent disease of wine grapes in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (Ningxia), Northwestern China. At present, however, the primary infection of pathogens in this region has not been deeply investigated. The current study aims to better understand the epidemiological role of overwintering P. viticola and the levels of latent infection before GDM occurrence. We used a previously developed multiplex real-time PCR assay to quantify P. viticola in soil, leaf residue, and asymptomatic leaf samples from ten commercial vineyards in two consecutive years. We found that 60%, 80%, and 100% of the asymptomatic leaves, leaf residues, and soil samples were specific to P. viticola. The molecular disease index (MDI) was used to evaluate the levels of latent infection. Asymptomatic leaves with different levels of P. viticola infection during the latent period and high cumulative MDI correlated with a high area under the disease progress curve in terms of disease index (AUDPC-DI), and the correlation relationship between them was significant at P < 0.01. A well-correlated relationship was found between the AUDPC-DI in the previous year and the MDI data of leaf residues and asymptomatic leaves in the following year, as well as the AUDPC-DI, with corresponding correlation coefficients of 0.504, 0.498, and 0.595, respectively (P < 0.01). The findings indicate that the real-time PCR assay was a useful tool to accurately quantify the primary infection of P. viticola and to efficiently estimate the primary inoculum potentials of GDM epidemics in commercial vineyards.