A realistic EU vision of a lignite-based energy system in transition: Case study of Serbia

Bjelić, Ilija Batas; Rajaković, Nikola; Ćosić, Boris; Duić, Neven

doi:10.2298/tsci140613118b

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Non-renewable resources and accompanying dirty technologies are nearing their end. The remaining recognized reserves of fossil fuels on Earth cover 46 years of oil consumption, 58 years of natural gas and nearly 150 years of coal for exploitation [2]. In Serbia, the reserves of coal, which is of very poor quality, are estimated to only 50 years [3].…”

Section: Background For the Research Of The Mclra Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sixteen coal-fired thermal power plants (TPP) located in the Western Balkan countries produce extreme high emissions compared to the emissions from EU27 plus United Kingdom, which has 250 active thermal power plants. Eight of the 16 TPPs are 8 of 10 the most polluting TPPs in EU27 plus United Kingdom [2]. This is one of the biggest reasons for strengthening regional cooperation in the field of renewable energy sources for sustainable development and climate change to achieve conditions of the European Green Plan in the Western Balkans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Artificial Intelligence and Nature-Inspired Optimization on Integrative Capacity of Renewable Energy in the Western Balkan

Stevović¹,

Kirin²,

Bozic³

2021

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Two artificial intelligence models for the integration of renewable energy sources are developed within this research to contribute to the European Green Plan realization. The review of renewable energy natural potential, on one hand, and installed capacity, on the other hand, in the Western Balkans and twenty-eight European countries is done within this research, as well as emissions. The analyses show that the European countries, sometimes even with lower natural potential in renewables, have installed much more renewable capacities than the Balkans countries with much higher natural potential. According to this, the first artificial intelligence model is developed based on multi-criteria linear regression analysis. This model relies on the correlation between the relevant regressors, i.e. relevant input variables for twenty-eight European countries and the same regressors for a particular Balkans country. Its goal is to find the maximum possible integrative renewable capacity in a Balkans’s country within the real socio-economic environment. The second artificial intelligence model is developed based on multi-criteria evolution genetic algorithms. Its goal is to find the maximum possible integrative renewable capacity within a real electric power system. Nature-inspired optimization is applied. From the framework of a given large number of generations, technical combinations of the degree of renewable energy sources integration, the best populations, i.e. combinations are selected. As nature selects from many generations and allows the best to survive and punishes the „weakˮ, in our case, „weak” combinations are those failing to meet the given conditions and limitations of the real electric power system. A new methodology is offered. Theoretical general formulas are given for both models. Developed models are tested on a numerical experiment of solar energy integration in the Serbia case study. Analyses of sensitivity prove that both models are applicable for all renewable energy sources and countries or regions.

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Section: Background For the Research Of The Mclra Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Artificial Intelligence and Nature-Inspired Optimization on Integrative Capacity of Renewable Energy in the Western Balkan

Stevović¹,

Kirin²,

Bozic³

2021

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“…In addition, the planned strategy does not take into account that global and EU requirements to cut emissions are only likely to become more strenuous as the fight against climate change intensifies. Furthermore, policies like prioritizing independent energy security apart from common EU policy or producing fossil fuel energy and selling it on the EU market are hard to justify for a candidate country (Batas-Bjelic et al, 2015). Already the recent Energy Union initiative and Memorandum of Understanding (EC, 2014) on a joint approach from the European Commission (Šefčovič, 2015), as well as the reported signing of the Energy Charter Treaty (BETA, 2015) call for further diversification of energy supply and increased solidarity among member and candidate countries.…”

Section: Energy Security As the Overriding Post Conflict Objectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Leapfrogging potential for sustainable energy transition in Serbia

Hakala

Bjelić

2016

IJESM

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Purpose-This paper aims to look at the dilemma of promoting sustainable energy transition in post-socialist countries while containing social and economic implications, focusing on the case of Serbia. The aim is to analyse Serbian energy status taking into account historical factors, to analyse barriers that are hindering transition and to identify leapfrogging potential for the sustainable energy development of the country. Design/methodology/approach-Energy transition and leapfrogging potential have been qualified and quantified by indicators, our own calculations and policy analysis to identify barriers to sustainable energy. Findings-The country has vast potential for leapfrogging in energy transition, yet continues the gradualist approach based on several policy barriers to the process. The analysis shows six barriers related to low energy price, high energy intensity, prioritization of energy security, inadequacy of utilization of renewable sources, lack of policy coherence and dependency on external funding. However, these barriers could be overcome with an energy policy emphasizing leapfrogging potential. As is pointed out in the conclusion, this should be based on the difference between EU-28 average indicators, discrepancy between use and availability of renewable energy, potential for regional cooperation in the energy sector and under-used skills and participation. Originality/value-The paper discusses energy transition in its historical context, arguing that it has to be considered as comprehensively with societal implications and effects, thus creating useful knowledge for other post-socialist countries in current and future transitions.

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“…Flexibility is then obtained as a positive side effect of cost minimization [15], which might be a feature of the EPOPT method. The iterative method, based on heuristics presented in [19] has been standard for EnergyPLAN users in the process of performing national energy analysis and recommendation of the strategies in South East Europe [39], Romania [40], Serbia [41], Croatia [42] and many other countries [43]. In this article the heuristic method is compared to a new optimization method (EPOPT) to look at how they reduce the flexibility gap and costs in sustainable national energy systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Two methods for decreasing the flexibility gap in national energy systems

Bjelić

Rajaković

Krajačić

et al. 2016

Energy

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Abstract:More variable renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures create an additional flexibility gap and require a novel energy planning method for sustainable national energy systems. The firstly presented method uses only EnergyPLAN tool in order to decrease the flexibility gap in a national energy system. Generic Optimization program (GenOpt®) is an optimization program for the minimization of a cost function that is evaluated by an external simulation program, such as EnergyPLAN, which was used as the second method in this research. Successful strategies to decrease the flexibility gap are verified on the case of the Serbian national energy system using two methods for its structure design: (1) the iterative method, based on heuristics and manual procedure of using only EnergyPLAN, and (2) the optimization method, based on soft-linking of EnergyPLAN with GenOpt®. The latter method, named EPOPT (EnergyPlan-genOPT), found the solution for the structure of the sustainable national energy system at the total cost of 8,190 M€, while the iterative method was only able to find solutions at the cost in the range of 8,251-8,598 M€ by targeting only one sustainability goal. The advantages of the EPOPT method are its accuracy, user-friendliness and minimal costs, are valuable for planners. Highlights Heuristic and optimization method for sustainable national energy system structure  The same input assumptions resulting in different energy system structure  Both methods are successful in decreasing of the flexibility gap  The EPOPT method advantages are in the speed, accuracy and planner comfort  Advanced method for the sustainable national energy policy planning

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A realistic EU vision of a lignite-based energy system in transition: Case study of Serbia

Cited by 12 publications

References 17 publications

Artificial Intelligence and Nature-Inspired Optimization on Integrative Capacity of Renewable Energy in the Western Balkan

Artificial Intelligence and Nature-Inspired Optimization on Integrative Capacity of Renewable Energy in the Western Balkan

Leapfrogging potential for sustainable energy transition in Serbia

Two methods for decreasing the flexibility gap in national energy systems

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