A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19

Abstract

In this short paper, we reflect on the recent accumulation of scenarios that have been developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Will they be of use to worried individuals and organizations? Or, are they artifacts of the very recent past? We conclude that these quickly-produced scenarios are not embedded in the realities of affected communities and that the scenario development process should be enhanced to either involve power-holding stakeholders or, more straightforwardly, to activate local consideration of how the affected community might/might not wish to react to localized dilemmas. Both enhancements will provide action-orientated insights, beyond that of simply appreciating possible global/regional futures.

The Value of Mass-Produced Covid-19 Scenarios: An Evaluation of the Quality of Development Processes and Scenario Content

“…While building each scenario's profile, four dimensions were added alongside the CSI typology, to help fully address Cairns & Wright's (2020) original propositions. The first dimension expands the practitioner characteristic with the category Arm's length, which encompasses consulting professionals, journalists, and scenario authors who did not fit within the other categories.…”

“…Three propositions are developed in Cairns & Wright's (2020) paper, with respect to thenburgeoning corpus of COVID-19 scenario sets. First, that these scenarios are largely artefacts reflecting the realities of the time.…”

“…The aims are to i) evaluate the potential value of early COVID-19 scenarios for their intended audiences and ii) provide guidance for future scenario planning in times of great disruption. We propose to achieve the first aim by developing the profiles of COVID-19 scenarios produced within the first six months of 2020 (i.e., "the first wave"), then use features of their profiles to compare against Cairns & Wright's (2020) three propositions -to help determine the value of particular scenario sets to the target communities and organisations. Based on our discoveries, we offer guidance for improvements in the quality of future scenario planning efforts.…”

“…The final characteristic that addresses Cairns & Wright's (2020) second proposition looks at the number of scenarios developed from each team of practitioners. Between the months of January and June, practitioners developed a range of 1 -48 COVID-19 focused scenarios.…”

Past‐future synergies: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020

“…Schoemaker's article gives insights on why historians should not leave the future to others (Bátiz‐Lazo & Haigh& Stearns, 2014) and why scenario planners should embrace history. Rather than writing reactive scenarios (Cairns & Wright, 2020), we have to learn from alternative analyses of the past to proactively and creatively plan for the future. Historical analysis and scenario‐planning have to feed from each other to lead to better forecasts and actions.…”