A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

Mearns, Linda O.; Gutowski, William J.; Jones, R. G.; Leung, Ruby; McGinnis, Seth; Nunes, Ana M. B.; Qian, Yun

doi:10.1029/2009eo360002

Cited by 504 publications

(351 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…More detail about NARCCAP can be found at its web site (www.narccap.ucar.edu) and in published documents (Mearns et al 2009(Mearns et al , 2012. Regional climate models (RCM) are used to dynamically downscale GCMs (coupled General Circulation Model) results to regional climate for Gilmore City.…”

Section: Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

Wang

Xue

et al. 2015

Climatic Change

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The effect of climate change on crop production and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) pollution from subsurface drained fields is of a great concern. Using the calibrated and validated RZWQM2 (coupled with CERESMaize and CROPGRO in DSSAT), the potential effects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (CO2) on tile drainage volume, NO3-N losses, and crop production were assessed integrally for the first time for a corn-soybean rotation cropping system near Gilmore City, Iowa. RZWQM2 simulated results under 20-year observed historical weather data (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and ambient CO2 were compared to those under 20-year projected future meteorological data (2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064) and elevated CO2, with all management practices unchanged. The results showed that, under the future climate, tile drainage, NO3-N loss and flow-weighted average NO3-N concentration (FWANC) increased by 4.2 cm year−1 (+14.5 %), 11.6 kg N ha−1 year−1 (+33.7 %) and 2.0 mg L−1 (+16.4 %), respectively. Yields increased by 875 kg ha−1 (+28.0 %) for soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] but decreased by 1380 kg ha−1(−14.7 %) for corn (Zea mays L.). The yield of the C3 soybean increased mostly due to CO2enrichment but increased temperature had negligible effect. However, the yield of C4 corn decreased largely because of fewer days to physiological maturity due to increased temperature and limited benefit of elevated CO2 to corn yield under subhumid climate. Relative humidity, short wave radiation and wind speed had small or negligible impacts on FWANC or grain yields. With the predicted trend, this study suggests that to mitigate NO3-N pollution from subsurface drained corn-soybean field in Iowa is a more challenging task in the future without changing current management practices. This study also demonstrates the advantage of an agricultural system model in assessing climate change impacts on water quality and crop production. Further investigation on management practice adaptation is needed. RightsWorks produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted. Abstract The effect of climate change on crop production and nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) pollution from subsurface drained fields is of a great concern. Using the calibrated and validated RZWQM2 (coupled with CERES-Maize and CROPGRO in DSSAT), the potential effects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (CO 2 ) on tile drainage volume, NO 3 -N losses, and crop production were assessed integrally for the first time for a corn-soybean rotation cropping system near Gilmore City, Iowa. RZWQM2 simulated results under 20-year observed historical weather data (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006...

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Section: Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

Wang

Xue

et al. 2015

Climatic Change

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“…NARCCAP involves six RCMs (identified as CRCM, ECPC, MM5I, RCM3, WRFP, and HRM3) using a similar 50-km horizontal resolution grid. In the NARCCAP framework, each RCM has to be driven by the NCEP reanalysis and by two distinct GCMs data (Mearns et al, 2009). Every future simulation in NARCCAP follows greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations from the SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2000).…”

Section: Available Simulation Series and Observed Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) aims at producing simulations generated by a set of regional climate models (RCMs) on a common period and domain (Mearns et al, 2009). The NARCCAP Regional Climate Models' simulations provide the required data to address the assessment of CC signal and its associated uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Mailhot

Beauregard

Talbot

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Annual maxima (AM) series of precipitation from 15 simulations of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) have been analysed for gridpoints covering Canada and the northern part of United States. The NARCCAP Regional Climate Models' simulations have been classified into the following three groups based on the driving data used at the RCMs boundaries: (1) NCEP (6 simulations); (2) GCM-historical (5 simulations); and (3) GCM-future (4 simulations). Historical simulations are representative of the 1968-2000 period while future simulations cover the 2041-2070 period. A reference common grid has been defined to ease the comparison. Multi-model average intensities of AM precipitation of 6-, 12-, 24-, 72-, and 120-h for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods have been estimated for each simulation group. Comparison of results from NCEP and GCM-historical groups shows good overall agreement in terms of spatial distribution of AM intensities. Comparison of GCM-future and GCM-historical groups clearly shows widespread increases with median relative changes across all gridpoints ranging from 12 to 18% depending on durations and return periods. Fourteen Canadian climatic regions have been used to define regional projections and average regional changes in intense precipitation have been estimated for each duration and return period. Uncertainties on these regional values, resulting from inter-model variability, were also estimated. Results suggest that inland regions (e.g. Ontario and more specifically Southern Ontario, the Prairies, Southern Quebec) will experience the largest relative increases in AM intensities while coastal regions (e.g. Atlantic Provinces and the West Coast) will experience the smallest ones. These projections are most valuable inputs for the assessment of future impact of climate change on water infrastructures and the development of more efficient adaptation strategies.

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“…Saha et al 2006;Matthes et al 2010;Glisan and Gutowski 2014a, b;Koenigk et al 2015). The spatial coverage of the multimodel ensemble of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP; Mearns et al 2009) only partially covered the Canadian Arctic, which makes this analysis of the CORDEX multi-model ensemble novel.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

et al. 2017

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A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

Cited by 504 publications

References 4 publications

Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

Future changes in intense precipitation over Canada assessed from multi‐model NARCCAP ensemble simulations

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

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