A regional-scale assessment of Himalayan glacial lake changes using satellite observations from 1990 to 2015

Abstract

The Himalaya, the world's highest mountain ranges, are home to a large group of glaciers and glacial lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in this region have resulted in catastrophic damages and fatalities in the past decades. The recent warming has caused dramatic glacial lake changes and increased potential GLOFs risk in the Himalaya. However, our knowledge on the current state and change of glacial lakes in the entire Himalaya is limited. This study maps the current (2015) distribution of glacial lakes across the entire Himalaya and monitors the spatially-explicit evolution of glacial lakes over five time periods from 1990 to 2015 using a total of 348 Landsat images at 30 m resolution. The results show that 4950 glacial lakes in 2015 cover a total area of 455.3 ± 72.7 km 2 , mainly located between 4000 m and 5700 m above sea level. Himalayan glacial lakes expanded by approximately 14.1% from 1990 to 2015. The changing patterns of supraglacial lakes and proglacial lakes are rather complex, involving both lake disappearance and emergence. Many emergent glacial lakes are found at higher elevations, especially the new proglacial lakes, which have formed as a result of glacier retreat. Spatially heterogeneous changes of Himalayan glacial lakes are observed, with the most significant expansion occurring in the southern slopes of the central Himalaya. Increasing glacier meltwater induced by the Himalayan atmospheric warming is a primary cause for the observed lake expansion. This study provides primary data for future GLOF risk assessments. A total of 118 rapidly expanded glacial lakes are identified as potential vulnerable lakes for the priority of risk assessment.

Evaluating the Scale and Potential of GLOF in the Bhutan Himalayas Using a Satellite-Based Integral Glacier–Glacial Lake Inventory

“…However, these lakes are not larger than 0.1 km 2 nor debris-covered. This is strong evidence for the importance of debris-covered mother glaciers for rapid expansion of large glacial lakes, which is consistent with previous studies [1][2][3]28].…”

“…They reported that the PRISM DSM used for the ALOS image ortho-rectification had a vertical accuracy of 2.3 ± 7.8 m against ground control points (N = 3268) and a delineated lake outline had a mean distance of 9.5 m (11.7 m in root mean square) from a global positioning system (GPS)-measured outline. It was noted, for the purposes of the current study, that these error values were sufficiently small for delineating lakes >0.01 km 2 .…”

“…The largest number of glacial lakes (58%) were in the size class of 0.01-0.05 km 2 (Figure 3a). Nie et al [2] also showed that the highest number of lakes were in the size category of 0.01-0.05 km 2 . This size category had the greatest total area of glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalayas and the Himalayan Range.…”

“…This implies that the connection type and the presence of supra-glacial debris are strongly related to continuous lake expansion. In previous studies [2][3][4]25], lakes still in contact with associated glaciers were classified as supra-glacial (Cs) and pro-glacial (Cp) lakes. In the current study, four categories were used, including the Cs and Cp types.…”

“…Nearly 10,000 glacial lakes are located in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region and on the Tibetan Plateau [1,2]. Previous studies have reported changes in the surface areas of these lakes in recent decades.…”