2018
DOI: 10.3390/w10101297
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A Regional-Scale Landslide Warning System Based on 20 Years of Operational Experience

Abstract: SIGMA is a regional landslide warning system based on statistical rainfall thresholds that operates in Emilia Romagna (Italy). In this work, we depict its birth and the continuous development process, still ongoing, after two decades of operational employ. Indeed, a constant work was carried out to gather and incorporate in the modeling new data (extended rainfall recordings, updated landslides inventories, temperature and soil moisture data). The use of these data allowed for regular updates of the model and … Show more

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Cited by 56 publications
(49 citation statements)
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“…The results determined were TP equal to six, FN and FP were two and three respectively, and so TS was found to be 0.54. The result shows that the rainfall thresholds can be used the first step and eventually the threshold effectiveness will be improved in time when additional data will be collected, as shown in other long-term projects [12]. However, when using as an early warning system the effect of daily as well as antecedent rainfall needs to be considered.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 98%
“…The results determined were TP equal to six, FN and FP were two and three respectively, and so TS was found to be 0.54. The result shows that the rainfall thresholds can be used the first step and eventually the threshold effectiveness will be improved in time when additional data will be collected, as shown in other long-term projects [12]. However, when using as an early warning system the effect of daily as well as antecedent rainfall needs to be considered.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 98%
“…The main reason for the better performance of SIGMA seems to be the effectiveness in predicting the slow movements occurred in 2017: a technique based on detecting antecedent rainfall anomalies. SIGMA is more suited than ID and ED thresholds to forecast slope movements with a complex hydrological response [26]. ID and ED thresholds correctly predicted seven out of eight shallow landslides happened in 2016 but failed to forecast the slow movements in 2017 except for one day.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…It is well accepted that shallow landslides and debris flows are triggered by high intensity-short rainfalls and deep-seated landslides occur as a result of less intense rain over a long time [16,23,24] When an area is prone to both shallow and rapid and deep-seated and slow moving landslides, a threshold model which can accommodate the effect of both the cases should be defined. A model that holds this characteristic is SIGMA (sistema integrato gestione monitoraggio allerta-integrated system for management, monitoring and alerting), which was developed for managing the risk associated with landslides triggered by rainfall in the Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy [23,25,26]. The model takes cumulative rainfall as input, and it considers the long-term and short-term behavior in order to account for shallow and deep landslides, respectively.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…
Most landslides and debris flows worldwide occur during or following periods of rainfall, and many of these have been associated with major disasters causing extensive property damage and loss of life [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Given concerns about the effects of climate change on precipitation regime, in the future, some mountainous areas may likely experience more landslides with a faster response to rainfall; however, most such projections are weakly based and remain untested [10,11].Subsurface hydrology is usually the main triggering mechanism of these landslides and associated debris flows.
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mentioning
confidence: 99%