Objective To assess the prognostic value of clinicopathological factors as
well as BRAF and TERT promoter mutations in predicting distant
metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid cancer.
Design The status of BRAF and TERTp mutations were available
in 1,208 thyroid cancer patients who received thyroidectomy at Jiangyuan
Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine from January 2008
to December 2021. Based on inclusion criteria, 99 distant metastasis thyroid
cancers (DM-TCs) and 1055 patients without DM (Non-DM-TCs) were retrospectively
reviewed.
Results After univariate and multivariate analyses, a risk model was
established for DM prediction based on factors: T3/T4 stage, lymph node
metastasis (LNM) number over 5, and BRAF/TERT mutations (TLBT).
It was defined based on the number of TLBT factors: low risk (no risk factor,
n=896), intermediate risk (1 risk factor, n=199), and high risk
(≥2 risk factors, n=59). Notably, compared with patients with
low and intermediate risks, patients assigned to high TLBT risk have a shorter
time of DM disease-free survival. Except for gene mutation, other factors were
also included in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk guideline.
Comparing with the ATA risk category, this risk model showed a better
performance in predicting DM-TCs.
Conclusions This study proposes a TLBT risk classifier consisting of
T3/T4 stages, LNM (n>5), and BRAF+TERTp mutations
for predicting DM-TCs. TLBT risk stratification may help clinicians make
personalized treatment management and follow-up strategies.