A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management

Thompson, Matthew P.; Silva, Francisco Rodríguez y; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S.

doi:10.1071/wf16137

Cited by 64 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 115 publications

(133 reference statements)

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“…Researchers from a range of disciplines, employing a range of techniques, and working closely with fire management practitioners, natural resource managers and communities at risk, can together expand upon this effort and forge society's new relationship with wildfire. Thompson MP (2017) The influence of management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Application of emerging knowledge and adoption of risk management principles to establish clear objectives and promote efficient suppression resource use will be necessary to move towards a more ecologically based fire management era. Thompson et al (2017) review the decision environment surrounding fire managers as they deliberate, develop and implement management strategies of rare, often high-impact events. The authors discuss key uncertainties, outline existing decision support approaches and identify opportunities to fill knowledge gaps.…”

Section: Strategic Planning and Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

Dunn

Calkin

Thompson

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. Wildfire's economic, ecological and social impacts are on the rise, fostering the realisation that business-asusual fire management in the United States is not sustainable. Current response strategies may be inefficient and contributing to unnecessary responder exposure to hazardous conditions, but significant knowledge gaps constrain clear and comprehensive descriptions of how changes in response strategies and tactics may improve outcomes. As such, we convened a special session at an international wildfire conference to synthesise ongoing research focused on obtaining a better understanding of wildfire response decisions and actions. This special issue provides a collection of research that builds on those discussions. Four papers focus on strategic planning and decision making, three papers on use and effectiveness of suppression resources and two papers on allocation and movement of suppression resources. Here we summarise some of the key findings from these papers in the context of risk-informed decision making. This collection illustrates the value of a risk management framework for improving wildfire response safety and effectiveness, for enhancing fire management decision making and for ushering in a new fire management paradigm.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Strategic Planning and Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

Dunn

Calkin

Thompson

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…, Thompson et al. ). Thus, there is an urgent need to evaluate the effectiveness of current fire management strategies for meeting important social and ecological objectives within the context of projected changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can wildland fire management alter 21st‐century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?

Hansen

Abendroth

Rammer³

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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In subalpine forests of the western United States that historically experienced infrequent, high‐severity fire, whether fire management can shape 21st‐century fire regimes and forest dynamics to meet natural resource objectives is not known. Managed wildfire use (i.e., allowing lightning‐ignited fires to burn when risk is low instead of suppressing them) is one approach for maintaining natural fire regimes and fostering mosaics of forest structure, stand age, and tree‐species composition, while protecting people and property. However, little guidance exists for where and when this strategy may be effective with climate change. We simulated most of the contiguous forest in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA to ask: (1) how would subalpine fires and forest structure be different if fires had not been suppressed during the last three decades? And (2) what is the relative influence of climate change vs. fire management strategy on future fire and forests? We contrasted fire and forests from 1989 to 2098 under two fire management scenarios (managed wildfire use and fire suppression), two general circulation models (CNRM‐CM5 and GFDL‐ESM2M), and two representative concentration pathways (8.5 and 4.5). We found little difference between management scenarios in the number, size, or severity of fires during the last three decades. With 21st‐century warming, fire activity increased rapidly, particularly after 2050, and followed nearly identical trajectories in both management scenarios. Area burned per year between 2018 and 2099 was 1,700% greater than in the last three decades (1989–2017). Large areas of forest were abruptly lost; only 65% of the original 40,178 ha of forest remained by 2098. However, forests stayed connected and fuels were abundant enough to support profound increases in burning through this century. Our results indicate that strategies emphasizing managed wildfire use, rather than suppression, will not alter climate‐induced changes to fire and forests in subalpine landscapes of western North America. This suggests that managers may continue to have flexibility to strategically suppress subalpine fires without concern for long‐term consequences, in distinct contrast with dry conifer forests of the Rocky Mountains and mixed conifer forest of California where maintaining low fuel loads is essential for sustaining frequent, low‐severity surface fire regimes.

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“…However, neither study provided details on actual changes in suppression efforts and tactics such as the location and extent of fireline construction. Only with additional investments in empirically-driven research to better characterize the productivity and effectiveness of suppression resources will operational modeling of suppression actions on large fires be possible [58].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies

Riley

Thompson

Scott³

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The complexity and demands of wildland firefighting in the western U.S. have increased over recent decades due to factors including the expansion of the wildland-urban interface, lengthening fire seasons associated with climate change, and changes in vegetation due to past fire suppression and timber harvest. In light of these changes, the use of more wildland fire on the landscape could reduce fuels and form barriers to the spread of future fires while performing forest restoration in some areas. However, the risks, costs and benefits of changing fire response strategy have not been quantified. Here, we identify gaps regarding the ability to simulate alternative wildfire suppression strategies, due to a number of factors including limited data collected on fireline construction, as well as synergies between firefighting resources and resource effectiveness. We present a fire management continuum: at one end lies full suppression of all fires under all circumstances, and at the opposite end lies no suppression of any fires regardless of location or time in season, with a wide array of managed fire options falling in between. Next, we demonstrate the proof-of-concept using a stochastic fire simulation model, FSim, to simulate two alternative fire suppression strategies close to opposite ends of this continuum for the Sierra National Forest of California: (1) business-as-usual, which equates to nearly full fire suppression; and (2) full suppression of human-caused fires and no suppression actions on lightning-caused fires. Results indicate that fire management strategy can substantially affect the number of large fires and landscape burn probabilities, both of which were shown to increase under the second scenario. However, temporal feedbacks are expected to play an important role: we show that increases in burned area substantially limit ignition potential and the extent of subsequent fires within the first five to ten years, especially under the second scenario. While subject to current data gaps and limitations in fire modeling, the methodology presented here can be used to simulate a number of alternative fire suppression strategies, including decisions to suppress or not suppress fires based on location, time of season or other factors. This method also provides basic inputs needed to estimate risks, costs and benefits of various alternative suppression strategies in future work. In future work, uncertainties resulting from current limitations in knowledge can be addressed using techniques such as scenario planning in order to provide land managers with a set of possible fire outcomes.

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A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management

Cited by 64 publications

References 115 publications

Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

Can wildland fire management alter 21st‐century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?

A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies

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