A review of China’s energy consumption structure and outlook based on a long-range energy alternatives modeling tool

Abstract

China's energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China's energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China's energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives planning energy modeling tool, the future of China's energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China's total energy consumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA's estimations. In addition, the clean fuels (gas, nuclear and renewables) could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels (coal and oil) and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

The environmental consequences of fossil fuels in China: National and regional perspectives

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“…In recent years, the nexus of emissions‐growth‐energy has attracted the attention of many scholars in different countries and areas. These scholars have investigated the nexus of CO 2 emissions, economic growth, and consumption of various energy types, including Bloch, Rafiq, and Salim (), Govindaraju and Tang (), Pereira and Pereira (), Saboori and Sulaiman (), Shahbaz, Tiwari, and Nasir (), Squalli (), and Tiwari et al () for coal consumption; Alkhathlan and Javid (), Al‐mulali (), Lim, Lim, and Yoo (), Lotfalipour, Falahi, and Ashena (), and Pereira and Pereira () for petroleum consumption; and Alkhathlan and Javid (), Dong, Sun, Li, and Jiang (), Li and Su (), Lotfalipour et al (), Pereira and Pereira (), and Saboori and Sulaiman () for natural gas consumption.…”

Mine Water Problems and Solutions in China

“…China is currently the largest coal-producing country in the world ) and the largest user of fossil fuels (Chen et al 2013;Li et al 2015); coal consumption was responsible for 63.7% of its total energy consumption in 2015 (Dong et al 2017). The Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China will lead to faster economic development, at the cost of even greater energy consumption, potentially causing environmental and water resources problems (Howard and Howard 2016;Li et al 2015Li et al , 2017a).…”

Risk Assessment of China’s Overseas Oil Refining Investment Using a Fuzzy-Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method

“…In 1993, China turned into a net oil importer for the first time, which stimulated refining enterprises to expand their investment activities in global oil fields under the encouragement of policy, namely 'utilizing two kinds of oil and gas resources and markets-at home and abroad' [2][3][4][5]. With over 80 projects spreading in 42 countries all over the world, Chinese overseas oil investment has been constantly growing in recent years [6].…”