A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Hanewinkel, Marc; Oehler, Karoline

doi:10.1007/s13595-011-0153-4

Cited by 182 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 128 publications

(231 reference statements)

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“…Even if-due to our limitations in data availability, epidemiological understanding, funding, time, computing power, and knowledge of future climate-we are unable to predict the trajectory of each pathosystem under climate change accurately, some general guidelines for action can be identified. For example, there is agreement that adaptive management is an important strategy to develop, because of its in-built monitoring and iterative learning process (Yousefpour et al 2012). Similarly important is the development of a range of different predictive techniques, so as to be able to take advantage of a diversity of analytical approaches.…”

Section: Predictability Modelling and Extrapolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

et al. 2012

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There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases. This overview addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods.Keywords Adaptive ecosystem management . Biotic interactions . Landscape pathology . Phytophthora ramorum . Plant disease epidemiology . Tree fungal pathogens Up to the 1990s, there was little information about climate change impacts on plant disease. For example, Eur J Plant Pathol

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Section: Predictability Modelling and Extrapolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

et al. 2012

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“…3.3 Evolutionary benefits and risks expected from some silvicultural recommendations related to climate change New forestry practice is progressively implemented to reduce ecological and economic risks related to climate change (Legay and Mortier 2005;Yousefpour et al 2012).…”

Section: Foreseen Evolutionary Impact Of Common Forestry Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Considering evolutionary processes in adaptive forestry

Lefèvre

Boivin

Bontemps

et al. 2013

Annals of Forest Science

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Managing forests under climate change requires adaptation. The adaptive capacity of forest tree populations is huge but not limitless. Integrating evolutionary considerations into adaptive forestry practice will enhance the capacity of managed forests to respond to climate-driven changes. & Aims Focusing on natural regeneration systems, we propose a general framework that can be used in various and complex local situations by forest managers, in combination with their own expertise, to integrate evolutionary considerations into decision making for the emergence of an evolution-oriented forestry. & Methods We develop a simple process-based analytical grid, using few processes and parameters, to analyse the impact of forestry practice on the evolution and evolvability of tree populations. & Results We review qualitative and, whenever possible, quantitative expectations on the intensity of evolutionary drivers in forest trees. Then, we review the effects of actual and potential forestry practice on the evolutionary processes. We illustrate the complexity of interactions in two study cases: the evolutionary consequences for forest trees of biotic interactions and of highly heterogeneous environment. & Conclusion Evolution-oriented forestry may contribute adapting forests to climate change. It requires combining short-term and long-term objectives. We propose future lines of research and experimentation.

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“…By doing that, the owner behaves as a risk neutral profitmaximizer. However, the literature shows that risk aversion may play a significant role in the forest owner's management decision (Yousefpour et al 2012;Brunette et al 2014). For example, Alavrez and Koskela (2006) show that risk aversion decreases the optimal harvesting age, and Uusivuori (2002) predicts that if the owner's risk aversion decreases as wealth increases, then the standing timber stock will increase in the future, and the intensity of timber harvests will decline.…”

Section: Limitations and Extensionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some surveys also deal with the handling of risk in a forestry context. In this vein, Hahn and Knoke (2010) linked risk handling strategies and precautionary principle, while Yousefpour et al (2012) reviewed the decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An economic comparison of risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum in the Landes de Gascogne Forest

Brunette

Caurla

2016

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract• Key message Phytosanitary risks are an increasing threat for forest, particularly due to climate change. Risk handling measures are effective economic strategies to manage such risks, so that Economics may provide relevant methodology to address this new challenge.• Context Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum are two phytosanitary risks generating increasing damage in the Landes de Gascogne Forest.• Aims We provide an economic comparison of different existing risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum.• Methods We use the Land Expectation Value, i.e., Faustmann criteria, to compare the different scenarios.• Results We find that for Hylobius abietis, chemical treatment and fallow seem to be economically preferable to the absence of risk handling measure. For Heterobasidion Handling Editor: Marc HanewinkelContribution of the co-authors The two co-authors supervised the internship of Alexandre Gourdy that provided the preliminary version of the article. The manuscript was written by the two coauthors. Marielle Brunette focused more on the section dedicated to Hylobius abietis while Sylvain Caurla provided the analysis for Heterobasidion annosum. Marielle BrunetteMarielle.Brunette@nancy.inra.fr Sylvain Caurla Sylvain.Caurla@nancy.inra.fr 1 LEF, AgroParisTech, INRA, 54000 Nancy, France annosum, we show that local stump removal is always preferable to total stump removal and chemical treatment. Local stump removal should be preferred to fallow when contamination occurs during the second thinning. Finally, our results indicate that fallow is always preferable to chemical treatment.• Conclusion Beyond the specificities of the case study, the paper proposes a methodology to analyze such a problematic.

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A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

Cited by 182 publications

References 128 publications

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

Considering evolutionary processes in adaptive forestry

An economic comparison of risk handling measures against Hylobius abietis and Heterobasidion annosum in the Landes de Gascogne Forest

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