A Review of Dengue’s Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate

Abstract

Purpose of review The purpose of this review is to summarize research articles that provide risk estimates for the historical and future impact that climate change has had upon dengue published from 2007 through 2019. Recent findings Findings from 30 studies on historical health estimates, with the majority of the studies conducted in Asia, emphasized the importance of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, as well as lag effects, when trying to understand how climate change can impact the risk of contracting dengue. Furthermore, 35 studies presented findings on future health risk based upon climate projection scenarios, with a third of them showcasing global level estimates and findings across the articles emphasizing the need to understand risk at a localized level as the impacts from climate change will be experienced inequitably across different geographies in the future. Summary Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading viral diseases in the world, with ~390 million people infected worldwide annually. Several factors have contributed towards its proliferation, including climate change. Multiple studies have previously been conducted examining the relationship between dengue and climate change, both from a historical and a future risk perspective. We searched the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health (NIEHS) Climate Change and Health Portal for literature (spanning January 2007 to September 2019) providing historical and future health risk estimates of contracting dengue infection in relation to climate variables worldwide. With an overview of the evidence of the historical and future health risk posed by dengue from climate change across different regions of the world, this review article enables the research and policy community to understand where the knowledge gaps are and what areas need to be addressed in order to implement localized adaptation measures to mitigate the health risks posed by future dengue infection.

Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries

“…The peak DF transmission potential was projected to increase by up to 1.80 or decline by up to 1.82 under a high emission scenario, and the change would show within-country and between-country variations. Consistent with prior studies highlighting a decreasing trend in DF transmissibility, we projected a gradual decline in peak DF transmission potential in Singapore and Malaysia, which may be attributed to fewer favourable environmental conditions in these areas for DF spread in the future [ 29 , 30 ]. Prior studies suggested threshold effects of temperature and rainfall, meaning that once the temperature and rainfall exceed the vector’s threshold, the less favourable living environment for mosquito survival would affect DF transmission [ 10 ].…”

The Changing Climate and Pregnancy Health

“…Maternal dengue infection is capable of vertical transmission to the fetus, causing fetal or perinatal mortality. This infection is also known to increase the risk of maternal mortality, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, preterm birth, low birthweight, and C-section [ 161 , 162 ].…”

Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics

“…Our model identified a significant role of monthly mean temperature, with an additional 1 °C temperature increasing the monthly cases by 26%. Earlier studies showed that for every 1 °C increase in temperature, dengue cases increased by 61% in Australia, 12%–22% in Cambodia, 5% in Vietnam, and 2.6% in Mexico ( Soneja et al 2021 ). Increasing temperatures can accelerate mosquito population growth and shorten the duration of the EIP of the virus, thereby allowing an increased biting rate and more frequent transmission ( Najmul Haider 2018 , Couper et al 2021 ).…”