A Review of El Niño Southern Oscillation Linkage to Strong Volcanic Eruptions and Post-Volcanic Winter Warming

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Hermanson, Leon; Scaife, Adam A.; Visioni, Daniele; Zhao, Ming; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Graf, Hans‐F.; Dogar, Muhammad Ahmad; Almazroui, Mansour; Fujiwara, Masatomo

doi:10.1007/s41748-022-00331-z

Cited by 9 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 200 publications

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“…Most previous work on the volcanic forcing of tropical climate variability has focused on ENSO. Observed and simulated sea surface temperatures (SST) show a consistent El Niño response following large tropical and Northern Hemisphere eruptions (Dogar et al., 2023; Emile‐Geay et al., 2008; Khodri et al., 2017; Pausata et al., 2015; Singh et al., 2020; Stevenson et al., 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Volcanic Eruptions and Low Frequency Indo‐Pacific Variability Drive Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Tiger,

Ummenhofer

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Volcanic eruptions can have significant climate impacts and serve as useful natural experiments for better understanding the effects of abrupt, externally forced climate change. Here, we investigate the Indian Ocean Dipole's (IOD) response to the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Post‐eruption composites show a strong negative IOD developing in the eruption year, and a positive IOD the following year. The IOD and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a long‐term damped oscillatory response that can take up to 8 years to return to pre‐eruptive baselines. Moreover, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase at the time of eruption controls the IOD response to intense eruptions, with negative (positive) IPO phasing favoring more negative (positive) IOD values via modulation of the background state of the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth. These results have important implications for climate risk in low‐likelihood, high‐impact scenarios, particularly in vulnerable communities unprepared for IOD and ENSO extremes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Volcanic Eruptions and Low Frequency Indo‐Pacific Variability Drive Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Tiger,

Ummenhofer

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are large‐scale climate variability patterns with profound global and regional climatic impacts (Dogar & Almazroui, 2022; Dogar & Sato, 2018; Dogar, Kucharski, & Azharuddin, 2017; Dogar, Stenchikov, et al., 2017; Dogar et al., 2019; Hurrel, 1995; Ineson & Scaife, 2009; Zhang et al., 2019; Zhu et al., 2021). Both these climate patterns are strongly influenced by volcanic forcing (e.g., Dogar et al., 2022; Dogar & Shahid, 2022; Dogar, Hermanson, et al., 2023; McGregor et al., 2020; Robock, 2000). However, their sensitivity to volcanic eruptions and associated climatic impacts are still controversial (see e.g., a review by Dogar, Hermanson, et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…volcanic forcing (e.g., Dogar, Hermanson, et al, 2023;McGregor et al, 2020;Robock, 2000). However, their sensitivity to volcanic eruptions and associated climatic impacts are still controversial (see e.g., a review by Dogar, Hermanson, et al (2023)). For instance, past studies suggested a strong linkage of post-eruption winter warming over Eurasia to post-eruption positive phase of NAO (Banerjee et al, 2021;Marshall et al, 2009;Robock, 2000;Shindell et al, 2004;Stenchikov et al, 2002).…”

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confidence: 99%

ENSO and NAO Linkage to Strong Volcanism and Associated Post‐Volcanic High‐Latitude Winter Warming

Dogar,

Fujiwara,

Zhao

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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High‐latitude winter warming was observed following strong tropical volcanism, which has long been believed to be due to the volcanic‐induced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, recent works argue that this warming is caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability instead of volcanoes. Moreover, some studies further argue that El Niño and volcanoes work together to produce this post‐volcanic NAO winter warming. To better understand these arguments on post‐volcanic high‐latitude winter warming, we conducted ENSO‐preconditioned volcanic experiments. Our simulations strongly suggest that the post‐eruption Eurasian winter warming is caused by a post‐eruption positive NAO phase and not by coexisting ENSO‐preconditioned variability. Additionally, we find that the El Niño‐preconditioned volcanic eruption enhances the El Niño phase; however, the neutral and La Niña‐preconditioned eruptions do not lead to an ENSO–like response. These findings are helpful to better understand volcanic‐induced circulation impacts and have important implications for the interpretation of model results and post‐volcanic prediction.

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“…While the mode is fundamentally one that is internal to the climate system, external forcing has been shown to influence both its occurrence and character (6,7). One such influence that has been widely explored in climate models is the response of ENSO to major volcanic eruptions (8,9). The response is characterized by the emergence of La Niña conditions in the year following major eruptions in the southern hemisphere and is associated with northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) due to the imposed interhemispheric gradient in the atmospheric energy budget (8)(9)(10)(11)(12).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One such influence that has been widely explored in climate models is the response of ENSO to major volcanic eruptions (8,9). The response is characterized by the emergence of La Niña conditions in the year following major eruptions in the southern hemisphere and is associated with northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) due to the imposed interhemispheric gradient in the atmospheric energy budget (8)(9)(10)(11)(12). Questions therefore arise as to whether the energetic imbalance driven by the Australian wildfires is capable of exacting a similar response in the ITCZ and what the associated implications are for ENSO and tropical SST generally.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2

2023

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The climate response to biomass burning emissions from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season is estimated from two 30-member ensembles using CESM2: one of which incorporates observed wildfire emissions and one that does not. In response to the fires, an increase in biomass aerosol burdens across the southern hemisphere is simulated through late 2019 and early 2020, accompanied by an enhancement of cloud albedo, particularly in the southeastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. In turn, the surface cools, the boundary layer dries, and the moist static energy of the low-level flow into the equatorial Pacific is reduced. In response, the intertropical convergence zone migrates northward and sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region cools, with coupled feedbacks amplifying the cooling. A subsequent multiyear ensemble mean cooling of the tropical Pacific is simulated through the end of 2021, suggesting an important contribution to the 2020–2022 strong La Niña events.

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A Review of El Niño Southern Oscillation Linkage to Strong Volcanic Eruptions and Post-Volcanic Winter Warming

Cited by 9 publications

References 200 publications

Tropical Volcanic Eruptions and Low Frequency Indo‐Pacific Variability Drive Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Tropical Volcanic Eruptions and Low Frequency Indo‐Pacific Variability Drive Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Events

ENSO and NAO Linkage to Strong Volcanism and Associated Post‐Volcanic High‐Latitude Winter Warming

A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2

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