A Review of Functions of Speculative Thinking

Abstract

Speculative thinking refers to thinking about past or future possibilities; it includes counterfactual thinking, prefactual thinking, and other types. In this narrative review, we discuss the traditional function of speculative thinking in improving future performance (i.e., the preparatory function). We also explore several non-preparatory functions of speculative thinking that have not been widely covered, namely the functions of conveying information and of supporting lying. In addition, we address temporal asymmetry; one perspective focuses on psychological distance in speculative thinking about the past and future, while another focuses on temporal asymmetry and reality/hypothetical differences in the preparatory function of speculative thinking. Overall, this review suggests that a broader functional theory is needed to address non-preparatory functions and the traditional preparatory function. Such a theory should cover all speculative thinking about the past and future rather than simply counterfactual thinking.

The asymmetric impact of decision-making confidence on regret and relief

“…After a decision has been made, people often consider the potential outcomes that would have arisen had an alternate decision been made ( FitzGibbon et al, 2021 ). Indeed, such reflection and reconsideration of past decisions is a common facet of human reasoning, and this process of retroactively altering the imagined outcomes of particular events has been termed counterfactual thinking or counterfactual reasoning ( Epstude and Roese, 2008 ; Van Hoeck et al, 2015 ; Byrne, 2016 ; Briazu et al, 2017 ; Huang et al, 2021 ). Such counterfactual thinking can provide adaptive benefits, enabling individuals to learn from these prior experiences such that they can better prepare for the future ( Byrne, 2016 ; Roese and Epstude, 2017 ), thus bridging the past and future ( Pieters and Zeelenberg, 2007 ).…”

How Duty-Free Policy Influences Travel Intention: Mediating Role of Perceived Value and Moderating Roles of COVID-19 Severity and Counterfactual Thinking

“…The present paper is innovative in its empirical approach to investigating the effect of duty-free policies on tourists' destination visit intentions amid the pandemic. Specifically, we propose that counterfactual thinking plays a preparatory function in promoting people's behavioural intentions through the functional theory of counterfactual thinking (Epstude and Roese, 2008;Huang et al, 2021). More precisely, how tourists' behavioural intentions toward a destination are generated and which factors influence such intentions are of interest to destination marketers: behavioural intentions (e.g., travel intentions) can forecast tourists' travel behaviour.…”