A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations

Chan-Lee, James H.

doi:10.1007/bf02719612

Cited by 27 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Svensson (1997) y Berk (1999) A partir de estos estudios, se ha señalado un conjunto de problemas relativos al tratamiento e interpretación de los datos de las encuestas de opinión, que ponen en duda que estos datos sean sustitutos adecuados de las reales expectativas de los agentes. En uno de los estudios más importantes se argumenta que los resultados de las encuestas son sensibles a errores de muestreo y en la formulación de las preguntas (véase Chan- Lee, 1980). Otro de los cuestionamientos más serios se refiere a que los encuestados pueden expresar opiniones que son diferentes de las que inspiran finalmente sus acciones y podrían tratar de manipular estratégicamente las respuestas para inducir el resultado deseado (Nardo, 2003).…”

Section: Indicadores De Expectativasunclassified

Expectativas y producción industrial en el Uruguay: interdependencia sectorial y tendencias comunes

Mernies¹

2014

Revista De La CEPAL

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Expectativas y producción industrial en el Uruguay: interdependencia sectorial y tendencias comunes Bibiana Lanzilotta M. RESUMENSe explora la interdependencia entre las expectativas y el crecimiento en un análisis aplicado a la industria manufacturera uruguaya, que se considera desagregada en cuatro grupos industriales diferenciados por su inserción comercial y especialización productiva.La investigación muestra que entre las expectativas de los empresarios y el crecimiento de la producción existe una relación de equilibrio a nivel de cada grupo industrial. En los grupos de perfil más transable esta relación es de predeterminación, denotando la utilidad de las expectativas para anticipar el crecimiento sectorial. Se prueba que las expectativas de los cuatro grupos industriales presentan una tendencia común en el largo plazo, que se identifica con aquella que guía a la del grupo exportador. Las simulaciones de impulso-respuesta derivadas del modelo de autorregresión vectorial var multisectorial reafirman la importancia de las industrias más expuestas a la competencia internacional en la propagación de los shocks de más corto plazo. PALABRAS CLAVEIndustria, productos manufacturados, desarrollo industrial, especialización de la producción, producción industrial, modelos econométricos, Uruguay

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Section: Indicadores De Expectativasunclassified

Expectativas y producción industrial en el Uruguay: interdependencia sectorial y tendencias comunes

Mernies¹

2014

Revista De La CEPAL

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“…These studies have served to identify a set of problems with the processing and interpretation of data from opinion polls which cast doubt on whether these data are a suitable proxy for agents' actual expectations. One of the most significant studies (Chan- Lee, 1980) argues that opinion poll results are sensitive to errors in sampling and the wording of questions. Another of the most serious criticisms is that respondents may express opinions different from those that ultimately guide their actions and may try to manipulate their responses strategically in order to bring about the result they want (Nardo, 2003).…”

Section: Indicators Of Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral inter dependence and common trends

M.¹

2014

CEPAL Review

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This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists' expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (var) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.

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“…The primary drawback is that participants may not base their actual decisions on their survey responses. Moreover, the results of sample surveys are overly sensitive to sampling errors and to the precise formulation of the questions posed (Chan-Lee 1980). This chapter deals with the use of quantitative information on inflation expectations and perceptions of European consumers as derived from qualitative survey data for monetary policy purposes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation Expectations

2009

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Inflation is widely regarded as a menace that damages business, and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low, and expectations of falling prices are dangerous, too, in other ways. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of international experts on inflation expectations, to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is how to get as much information as possible from surveys of inflation expectations, how best to study it and summarize it, react to it, and what the evidence tells us about the main factors that make people's varying, and often erroneous, inflation forecasts evolve over time.A number of factors have led practitioners and observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing another 25 countries, across all five continents, including Brazil, Canada and the UK. Still more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve System in the United States, and the Bank of Japan are among leading monetary institutions now contemplating some move, or a further move, in the same direction. A second factor is the large reduction in actual rates of inflation that has been observed in most countries over the last 15 years.These considerations underscore the critical -and largely under-recognizedimportance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, edited by Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

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A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations

Cited by 27 publications

References 46 publications

Expectativas y producción industrial en el Uruguay: interdependencia sectorial y tendencias comunes

Expectativas y producción industrial en el Uruguay: interdependencia sectorial y tendencias comunes

Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral inter dependence and common trends

Inflation Expectations

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