A review of <scp>ENSO</scp> teleconnections at present and under future global warming

Alizadeh, Omid

doi:10.1002/wcc.861

Cited by 15 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 150 publications

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“…Yu and Kim (2011) studied the relationship between different phases of ENSO and SLP in extratropical regions and concluded that the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) strengthens the Aleutian low pressure, and the cold phase has the opposite effect. According to the positive trends of the warm phases of ENSO (Yu and Kim 2011;Alizadeh, 2023), the strengthening of the Aleutian low pressure is expected, but with the results of this study and the weakening trend of this low pressure, it can be concluded that the impact of global warming on this low pressure is undeniable. However, further discussion and examination can be conducted in future studies.…”

Section: The Pacific Ocean and Aleutian Lowcontrasting

confidence: 49%

The effects of climate warming on large-scale atmospheric systems of the Northern Hemisphere

Mahavarpour,

Khoshhal Dastjerdi,

Abolfazl Masoudian

et al. 2024

RICA

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In the present study, we examine the impact of climate warming on the variability of the main climatic drivers in the northern hemisphere, using 40 years (1979-2018) of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We applied Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to identify regions with significant variability of 500-1000 hPa thickness. The findings reveal that climate warming is particularly pronounced at latitudes ranging from 80º to 90º and also in subtropical regions. The increase in thickness is most notable in mid-latitudes during the summer season, owing to climate warming. The steeper trend slope observed in autumn indicates a faster warming rate compared to other seasons. Moreover, despite climate warming, significant trends in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems demonstrate the strengthening of the Siberian high-pressure in winter and autumn. Additionally, a segment of the core of the Azores high-pressure system has also experienced strengthening during winter. Conversely, the monsoon and Aleutian low-pressure systems have weakened in spring and winter, respectively. The subtropical high-pressure system exhibits a positive and significant trend in winter, spring, and summer, aligning with the positive significant trends observed in atmospheric thickness, thereby confirming the effects of climate warming.

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Section: The Pacific Ocean and Aleutian Lowcontrasting

confidence: 49%

The effects of climate warming on large-scale atmospheric systems of the Northern Hemisphere

Mahavarpour,

Khoshhal Dastjerdi,

Abolfazl Masoudian

et al. 2024

RICA

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“…; (v) How could change synchronization patterns on ENSO under climate change? Recent literature suggests that ENSO teleconnections could vary substantially under the influence of global warming (Alizadeh, 2024) and (vi) How are the patterns of synchronization between the Amazon convection and precipitation in the tropical Andes? Segura et al (2019) found relationships between those processes but a synchronization approach is an open topic.…”

Section: Final Remarks and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation over northern South America and the far‐eastern Pacific during ENSO: Phase synchronization at inter‐annual time scales

Salas,

Builes‐Jaramillo,

Boers

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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We investigated the influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter‐annual precipitation variability in the far‐eastern Pacific (FEP) and northern South America (NSA) using an approach based on phase synchronization (PS). First, we carried out a detailed analysis of observational data to define the inter‐annual variability, eliminate the seasonal residual frequencies in hydro‐climatic anomalies, and assess the statistical significance of PS. Additionally, we characterized the seasonality of regional patterns of sea surface temperature, surface pressure levels, low‐level winds and precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO states. We found that the positive (negative) precipitation anomalies experienced in the FEP and NSA differ from those previously reported in the literature. In particular, the Guianas (northeastern Amazon) and the Caribbean constitute two regions with negative (positive) rainfall anomalies during El Niño (La Niña), separated by a zone of non‐significant anomalies along the Orinoco Low‐level Jet corridor. Moreover, we showed that the ENSO signal is phase‐locked with inter‐annual rainfall and low‐level wind variability in most of the study regions. Furthermore, we found consistency in the PS between the Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño indices and hydroclimatic anomalies over the Pacific. However, some areas exhibited PS, although they did not show significant precipitation anomalies, suggesting that the influence of ENSO on tropical climatology manifests not only in terms of the magnitude of anomalies but also in terms of the phases only. Our approach advances the understanding of climatic anomalies in tropical regions and provides new insights into the non‐linear interactions between ENSO and hydroclimatic processes in tropical Americas.

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Drought forecasting with regionalization of climate variables and generalized linear model

Lee,

Kong,

Lee

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

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Spring drought forecasting is essential in South Korea for managing water resources reliably and cultivating agricultural products efficiently, as seasonal rainfall difference often drives water shortage during spring. In the current study, a novel scheme for spring drought forecasting was suggested by extensively searching appropriate predictors from the global climate variable: here mean sea level pressure (MSLP) of the winter season due to its time lag for forecasting. The target series was estimated with the median of the spring precipitation series of the weather stations over South Korea, called the accumulated spring precipitation (ASP). A number of points of the MSLP data were detected as significant cross‐correlation with the ASP and also the points were regionally grouped. Therefore, the regionalization for the high correlation points was performed, resulting in three regions, such as Arctic Ocean (R1), South Pacific (R2), and South Africa (R3). The R1 and R2 regions are located at the places where climate indices have been developed such as Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation for R1 and the indicator of El‐Nino and Southern Oscillation for R2. The generalized linear model (GLM) was adopted in ASP drought forecasting with the driven three regionalized indices as the predictors of the ASP. The result indicates that the regionalized indices can produce a good performance in forecasting the ASP. The forecasting result can be employed as a good tool for managing water resources and planning better cultivation in agriculture industries.

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A review of ENSO teleconnections at present and under future global warming

Cited by 15 publications

References 150 publications

The effects of climate warming on large-scale atmospheric systems of the Northern Hemisphere

The effects of climate warming on large-scale atmospheric systems of the Northern Hemisphere

Precipitation over northern South America and the far‐eastern Pacific during ENSO: Phase synchronization at inter‐annual time scales

Drought forecasting with regionalization of climate variables and generalized linear model

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