A review of statistical methods for continuous monitoring of malformation frequencies

Barbujani, Guido

doi:10.1007/bf00145075

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…In many papers the method has been used to compare and evaluate the performance of alternative methods, e.g. the sets method in the previous section (Barbujani and Calzolari, 1984; Pollak and Kenett, 1983; Gallus et al , 1986; Chen, 1987; Radaelli, 1992). In Barbujani (1987) these comparisons are reviewed and described further.…”

Section: 12 Using the Number Of Events In Fixed Intervals To Studmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the sets method in the previous section (Barbujani and Calzolari, 1984;Pollak and Kenett, 1983;Gallus et al, 1986;Chen, 1987;Radaelli, 1992). In Barbujani (1987) these comparisons are reviewed and described further. Most of the comparisons favour the Poisson CUSUM method.…”

Section: Using the Number Of Events In Fixed Intervals To Study The Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This kind of papers is not reviewed here. Some reviews of prospective surveillance methods are already available (Barbujani, 1987;Farrington and Beale, 1998). However, in Barbujani (1987) the focus is narrowed to methods suggested for the surveillance of birth effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some reviews of prospective surveillance methods are already available (Barbujani, 1987;Farrington and Beale, 1998). However, in Barbujani (1987) the focus is narrowed to methods suggested for the surveillance of birth effects. In Farrington and Beale (1998) much attention is on key problems when using large surveillance databases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review and Discussion of Prospective Statistical Surveillance in Public Health

Sonesson

Bock

2003

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

268

176

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A review of methods suggested in the literature for sequential detection of changes in public health surveillance data is presented. Many researchers have noted the need for prospective methods. In recent years there has been an increased interest in both the statistical and the epidemiological literature concerning this type of problem. However, most of the vast literature in public health monitoring deals with retrospective methods, especially spatial methods. Evaluations with respect to the statistical properties of interest for prospective surveillance are rare. The special aspects of prospective statistical surveillance and different ways of evaluating such methods are described. Attention is given to methods that include only the time domain as well as methods for detection where observations have a spatial structure. In the case of surveillance of a change in a Poisson process the likelihood ratio method and the Shiryaev-Roberts method are derived. Copyright 2003 Royal Statistical Society.

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Section: 12 Using the Number Of Events In Fixed Intervals To Studmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Using the Number Of Events In Fixed Intervals To Study The Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A Review and Discussion of Prospective Statistical Surveillance in Public Health

Sonesson

Bock

2003

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

268

176

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“…In epidemiological surveillance, this distinction has frequently been overlooked in papers recommending the use of sequential tests. 6,7 To describe the relationship between maternal age i and the risk pi of an infant with Down's syndrome, we introduce a mathematical model incorporating a component unrelated to maternal age, which is added to the maternal age effect described by a logistic curve:…”

Section: The Sequential Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new sequential procedure for surveillance of Down's syndrome

Lie

Heuch

Irgens

1993

Statistics in Medicine

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A new method is proposed for the surveillance of Down's syndrome among newborn. Despite the strong dependence of overall risk of Down's syndrome on maternal age, it has been suggested that an environmentally induced increase in risk may be additive over all maternal ages. The surveillance method introduced here is specifically designed to detect such changes. The method is based on registry data for successive periods for a given population. It is assumed that the number of Down's syndrome cases as well as the total number of births are known in all maternal age groups. Tables of average run lengths until an alarm (ARLs) are calculated for a total sample size of 14,500 in each period, the approximate number of births in a three-month period in Norway. Comparison with the Poisson cusum shows that the new surveillance method can detect moderate additive increases significantly faster. Applied retrospectively to quarterly data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway for 1978-89, the proposed method was close to an alarm in 1985 and actually signalled a strong alarm in 1986, reflecting a previously reported increase in risk in this period. The cusum method was not so sensitive to the aberration in Down's syndrome risks in 1985 and 1986.

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A comparison of surveillance methods for small incidence rates

Sego

Woodall

Reynolds

2008

Statistics in Medicine

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A number of methods have been proposed for detecting an increase in the incidence rate of a rare health event, such as a congenital malformation. Among these are the sets method, two modifications of the sets method, and the CUSUM method based on the Poisson distribution. We consider the situation where data are observed as a sequence of Bernoulli trials and propose the Bernoulli CUSUM chart as a desirable method for the surveillance of rare health events. We compared the performance of the sets method and its modifications with that of the Bernoulli CUSUM chart under a wide variety of circumstances. Chart design parameters were chosen to satisfy a minimax criteria. We used the steady-state average run length to measure chart performance instead of the average run length (ARL), which was used in nearly all previous comparisons involving the sets method or its modifications. Except in a very few instances, we found that the Bernoulli CUSUM chart has better steady-state ARL performance than the sets method and its modifications for the extensive number of cases considered. Thus, we recommend the use of the Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor small incidence rates and provide practical advice for its implementation.

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A review of statistical methods for continuous monitoring of malformation frequencies

Cited by 14 publications

References 58 publications

A Review and Discussion of Prospective Statistical Surveillance in Public Health

A Review and Discussion of Prospective Statistical Surveillance in Public Health

A new sequential procedure for surveillance of Down's syndrome

A comparison of surveillance methods for small incidence rates

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