A review of the day-ahead natural gas consumption in Denmark: starting point towards forecasting accuracy improvement

Abstract

Natural gas consumption forecasting is crucial for transmission system operators, distribution system operators, traders, and other players in the market. This work collects natural gas forecasting scientific works in accordance with the forecasting tool used by Energinet, the Danish transmission system operator. The work provides an analytical description on the long-term stability and security of the natural gas transmission system in Denmark. This work offers a detailed scientific directory on natural gas forecasting, presenting the so far vaguely described market in a more structured manner. The paper was focused on presenting the latest findings on identifying the selection each time of the appropriate prognostic model for each application based on: ① the option for supporting double seasonality, ② various exogenous variables, ③ suitability for day-ahead forecasting, and ④ ease of use and all these versus Energinet’s current model.