A Review of Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone

Abstract

The uncertain tsunamigenic potential of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) has made it an interesting natural laboratory for tsunami-related studies. This study aims to review the recent activities on tsunami hazard in the Makran subduction zone with a focus on deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. While almost all studies focused on tsunami hazard from the Makran subduction thrust, other local sources such as splay faults and landslides can be also real threats in the future. Far-field tsunami sources such as Sumatra-Andaman and Java subduction zones, commonly lumped as the Sunda subduction zone, do not seem to pose a serious risk to the Makran coastlines. The tsunamigenic potential of the western segment of the MSZ should not be underestimated considering the new evidence from geological studies and lessons from past tsunamis in the world. An overview of the results of tsunami hazard studies shows that the coastal area between Kereti to Ormara along the shoreline of Iran-Pakistan and the coastal segment between Muscat and Sur along Oman’s shoreline are the most hazardous areas. Uncertainties in studying tsunami hazard for the Makran region are large. We recommend that future studies mainly focus on the role of thick sediments, a better understanding of the plates interface geometry, the source mechanism and history of extreme-wave deposits, the contribution of other local tsunamigenic sources and vulnerability assessment for all coastlines of the whole Makran region.

Submarine landslide tsunami hazard assessment for the Western Makran based on a deterministic approach

“…Makran subduction zone (MSZ) has long been known as a data-poor region, and there is not much information about previous huge submarine landslides. Most of the tsunamis that occurred in the region over the last millennium were triggered by earthquakes (Rashidi et al, 2020). Heidarzadeh et al (2008) compiled a comprehensive list of tsunamis that occurred in MSZ.…”

Reservoir Potential Assessment of the Tortonian–Calabrian Sediments from Offshore Makran (Southwest Pakistan) through a Multidisciplinary Approach

“…1). The area is an active tectonic subduction margin, characterized by the presence of an accretionary prism and an ideal site for earthquake seismological studies (Mokhtari et al, 2019;Rashidi et al, 2020). In terms of hydrocarbon prospectivity, the area has scarce exploratory well data and the petroleum system of this regime is neither well understood nor documented in published literature.…”

The sensitivity of tsunami models and tsunami energy to geologically constrained fault sources and shallow bathymetry

“…We also note that although probabilistic approaches are becoming more common, the deterministic method is still included in recent tsunami hazard studies (e.g. El-Hussain et al, 2021;Escobar et al, 2020;González-Vida et al, 2019;Rashidi et al, 2022Rashidi et al, , 2020Roshan et al, 2016;Wronna et al, 2015).…”