A review of unmanned aircraft system ground risk models

Washington, Achim; Clothier, Reece; Silva, Fernando

doi:10.1016/j.paerosci.2017.10.001

Cited by 68 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…), conditions at the point of impact (e.g., speed, position), or secondary effects like explosions, etc. [24]. However, in compliance with the SORA approach, this work assumes the worst-case condition where: (1) there are no sheltering structures that mitigate the effect of a ground impact, and (2) any direct impact of a UA causes the instant death of the people involved in the accident.…”

Section: Harm Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trajectory-Based, Probabilistic Risk Model for UAS Operations

Usach¹,

Vila²,

Gallego³

2020

Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management

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To enable the safe integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) into the civil airspace, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has elaborated a new regulatory framework that is operation-centric and risk-based. Based on this principle, gaining authorization to conduct certain types of operations depends on a safety risk assessment. To harmonize this process, the Joint Authorities for Rulemaking on Unmanned Systems (JARUS) released a qualitative methodology called Specific Operation Risk Assessment (SORA). However, SORA is not a complete safety assessment tool since, in some cases, a quantitative risk analysis is still required. This work develops a probabilistic risk model that extends SORA to evaluate the ground risk and the air risk components along a specified UAS trajectory quantitatively. The proposed model is supplied with illustrative data and is validated in a representative UAS mission. In the future, the risk model will be exploited to develop a decision tool for determining the minimum-risk trajectory when multiple, alternative routes are available.

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Section: Harm Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trajectory-Based, Probabilistic Risk Model for UAS Operations

Usach¹,

Vila²,

Gallego³

2020

Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management

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“…A recent review of MAC models for commercial aviation is Netjasov and Janic (2008), which includes descriptions of the general principle for many of the employed models. A very comprehensive review of 33 different ground risk models is given in Washington, Clothier, and Silva (2017). The review categorizes the models into failure, impact, recovery, stress, exposure, incident stress, and harm models, and compares them on a number of parameters.…”

Section: Manned Aircraft Collision Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft

Cour-Harbo

Schiøler

2019

Risk Analysis

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Unmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than one order of magnitude relative to the true MAC rate value. The model is applied to Danish airspace and the MAC rate for unmitigated operations of UA is found to be approximately 10−6 MAC per flight hour. The model is particularly well suited for beyond visual line‐of‐sight operations, and is useful for UA operators for conducting risk assessment of planned operations as well as for regulators for determining appropriate operational requirements.

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“…In [23] a study for ground impact fatalities resulting from power failure and subsequent uncontrolled glide is presented. An overview in [24] gives a thorough analysis of a variety of ground impact models.…”

Section: B Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Value of Step-by-Step Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft

Cour-Harbo

2018

2018 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS)

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Abstract-The new European legislation expected in 2018 or 2019 will introduce a step-by-step process for conducting risk assessments for unmanned aircraft flight operations. This is a relatively simple approach to a very complex challenge. This work compares this step-by-step process to high fidelity risk modeling, and shows that at least for a series of example flight missions there is reasonable agreement between the two very different methods.

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A review of unmanned aircraft system ground risk models

Cited by 68 publications

References 19 publications

Trajectory-Based, Probabilistic Risk Model for UAS Operations

Trajectory-Based, Probabilistic Risk Model for UAS Operations

Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft

The Value of Step-by-Step Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft

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