Improving the level of autonomy during the landing phase helps promote the full-envelope autonomous flight capability of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Aiming at the identification of potential landing sites, an end-to-end state estimation method for the autonomous landing of carrier-based UAVs based on monocular vision is proposed in this paper, which allows them to discover landing sites in flight by using equipped optical sensors and avoid a crash or damage during normal and emergency landings. This scheme aims to solve two problems: the requirement of accuracy for runway detection and the requirement of precision for UAV state estimation. First, we design a robust runway detection framework on the basis of YOLOv5 (you only look once, ver. 5) with four modules: a data augmentation layer, a feature extraction layer, a feature aggregation layer and a target prediction layer. Then, the corner prediction method based on geometric features is introduced into the prediction model of the detection framework, which enables the landing field prediction to more precisely fit the runway appearance. In simulation experiments, we developed datasets applied to carrier-based UAV landing simulations based on monocular vision. In addition, our method was implemented with help of the PyTorch deep learning tool, which supports the dynamic and efficient construction of a detection network. Results showed that the proposed method achieved a higher precision and better performance on state estimation during carrier-based UAV landings.