A Review on Wind Power Forecasting Models for improved Renewable Energy Integration

Prasad, S. Rajendra; Naik, M. Gopichand

doi:10.35842/icostec.v1i1.20

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 19 publications

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“…Among the vulnerabilities of hydroelectric energy, our study positions offshore wind energy as an axis of Portugal's renewable strategy [21], taking advantage of climate forecasting to predict and stabilize wind energy production. As supported by Reference [22], the diversification of forecasting models is paramount in enhancing the robustness of wind energy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of Offshore Wind Power Generation in Response to the 2022 Extreme Drought in Portugal

Camilo,

Santos,

Lobato

et al. 2023

Energies

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Portugal, in line with the European Union, is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 (Net Zero), which implies a transition to sustainable energy sources. Climate change is all too evident, as extreme weather periods are occurring in a cyclical manner with greater brevity to such an extent that the grid operator must deal with production scenarios where it can no longer rely on hydroelectric production given the recurring drought situation. This situation increases dependence on thermal production using natural gas and imports. This has significant economic implications. Portugal has exploited its onshore wind potential, reaching an installed capacity of 5.671 MW by 2022. However, the expansion of onshore wind energy is limited to reinforcing the existing infrastructure. To overcome these challenges, it is necessary to expand the exploitation of the offshore wind potential that is already underway. This article proposes the location of offshore wind production platforms along the Portuguese coast. This allows for an analysis of offshore production and its optimization according to the minimum cost per MWh in the face of extreme scenarios, i.e., in periods of extreme drought where the hydroelectric production capacity is practically non-existent. The model is fed by using market price indications and the amount of energy needed for the following day. Using forecast data, the model adapts offshore wind production for the following day according to the minimization of the average market price. This study presents an optimization model adapted to combat the unpredictability of extreme weather conditions. This strategic framework significantly increases the resilience and reliability of offshore wind energy production, marking a significant advance in the management of renewable energy under the pressure of climate variability. The results of the simulations allow us to conclude that despite the high cost of offshore technology (in deep waters), in extreme climate scenarios, it enables cost reduction and a clear decrease in imports.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of Offshore Wind Power Generation in Response to the 2022 Extreme Drought in Portugal

Camilo,

Santos,

Lobato

et al. 2023

Energies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Optimizing Offshore Wind Power Generation in Extreme Climatic Scenarios

Camilo,

Santos,

Lobato

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Portugal, in line with the European Union, is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 (Net 1 Zero), which implies a transition to sustainable energy sources. Climate change is all too evident, extreme weather periods are occurring in a cyclical manner, with greater brevity to such an extent that the grid operator must deal with production scenarios where it can no longer rely on hydroelectric production given the recurring drought situation. This situation increases dependence on thermal production using natural gas and imports. This has significant economic implications. Portugal has exploited its onshore wind potential, reaching an installed capacity of 5.671 MW by 2022. However, the expansion of onshore wind energy is limited to reinforcing existing infrastructure. To overcome these challenges, it is necessary to expand the exploitation of offshore wind potential that is already underway. This article proposes the location of offshore wind production platforms along the Portuguese coast. This allows for an analysis of offshore production and its optimization according to the minimum cost per MWh in the face of extreme scenarios, i.e., in periods of extreme drought where hydroelectric production capacity is practically non-existent. The model is fed by using market price indications and the amount of energy needed for the following day. Using forecast data, the model adapts offshore wind production for the following day according to the minimization of the average market price. The results of the simulations allow us to conclude that despite the high cost of offshore technology (in deep waters), in extreme climate scenarios, it enables cost reduction and a clear decrease in imports.

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Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount

et al. 2023

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Obtaining wind energy for the production of electric energy plays a key role in overcoming the problems associated with climate change and the dwindling reserves of traditional types of energy resources. The purpose of this work is to analyze current methods of energy estimation and forecasting, to consider the main classifications of forecasts and methods used in their construction and to review the main types of mathematical distributions used to calculate the speed and power of wind flow, depending on specific geographical conditions. In recent years, there has been an increase in the capacity of modern wind generators, which has significantly improved the efficiency of wind energy parks. The initial stage in determining the feasibility of involving a particular energy source in the overall energy system of the region is a preliminary assessment of the energy potential, allowing one to determine the possible percentage of substitution of traditional energy. To solve such a problem, it is necessary to use models of energy supply. Evaluation of wind as a resource creates certain difficulties in modeling because this resource is stochastic and variable. In this regard, this paper proposes to consider various models for estimating wind energy potential, which can be classified into empirical models and models based on the application of modern intelligent data analysis technologies. The paper presents an analysis of the existing models for estimating the amount of energy, which can be used in a system designed to determine the most optimal configuration of the energy system based on the use of different conversion technologies most relevant to the case under study, and it also serves as the basis for creating digital twins designed to model and optimize the operation of the projected energy complex.

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A Review on Wind Power Forecasting Models for improved Renewable Energy Integration

Cited by 3 publications

References 19 publications

Optimization of Offshore Wind Power Generation in Response to the 2022 Extreme Drought in Portugal

Optimization of Offshore Wind Power Generation in Response to the 2022 Extreme Drought in Portugal

Optimizing Offshore Wind Power Generation in Extreme Climatic Scenarios

Review of Estimating and Predicting Models of the Wind Energy Amount

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