A rigorous yet simple quantitative risk assessment method for quarantine pests and non‐native organisms

Holt, J.; Black, Robert; Abdallah, R. S.

doi:10.1111/j.1744-7348.2006.00082.x

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For example, the OIE provides a scale to classify and standardize qualitative probability categories [15]. National agencies in Australia (Biosecurity Australia), Canada (Canadian Food Inspection Agency) and the USA (United States Department of Agriculture) have used numerical ordinal scales that correspond to verbal expressions of risk for their qualitative risk assessments [59]. For example, very low, low, …, high is equivalent to 1, 2, …, n , where n is the number of points on the scale.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes

et al. 2014

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Nipah virus (NiV) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans. The reservoir hosts for NiV, bats of the genus Pteropus (known as flying-foxes) are found across the Asia-Pacific including Australia. While NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV infection has been found in flying-foxes in some of Australia's closest neighbours. A qualitative risk assessment was undertaken to assess the risk of NiV establishing in Australian flying-foxes through flying-fox movements from nearby regions. Events surrounding the emergence of new diseases are typically uncertain and in this study an expert opinion workshop was used to address gaps in knowledge. Given the difficulties in combining expert opinion, five different combination methods were analysed to assess their influence on the risk outcome. Under the baseline scenario where the median was used to combine opinions, the risk was estimated to be very low. However, this risk increased when the mean and linear opinion pooling combination methods were used. This assessment highlights the effects that different methods for combining expert opinion have on final risk estimates and the caution needed when interpreting these outcomes given the high degree of uncertainty in expert opinion. This work has provided a flexible model framework for assessing the risk of NiV establishment in Australian flying-foxes through bat movements which can be updated when new data become available.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes

et al. 2014

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“…The mean, then again, favors intermediate scores ( Fig. A2; Holt et al 2006, but see Hughes 2008. Our set of suggested operations therefore reflects a trade-off between the use of the precautionary principle, discriminative power and flexibility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harmonia + and Pandora +: risk screening tools for potentially invasive plants, animals and their pathogens

et al. 2015

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Given the large number of alien species that may potentially develop into invasives, there is a clear need for robust schemes that allow to screen species for such risks. The Harmonia ? framework presented here brings together 30 questions that refer to distinct components of invasion. Together, they cover the stages of introduction, establishment, spread, and multiple kinds of impacts, viz. referring to the health of the environment (including wild species), cultivated plants, domesticated animals and man. In a complete assessment, input is provided by choosing among predefined ordinal answers and by supplementing these with textual clarification. Uncertainty is covered by indicating levels of confidence. By converting answers into scores, which are then condensed into summary statistics, Harmonia ? allows for quantitative output on stage-specific and general risks. Test assessments on five species emerging in Belgium showed the perceived environmental risks of Procambarus clarkii to be highest (0.72), and that of Threskiornis aethiopicus to be lowest (0.13). Given the considerable parallels that exist between invasive alien species and emerging infectious diseases, we additionally created Pandora, which is a risk analysis scheme for pathogens and parasites. It consists of 13 key questions and has the same structure as Harmonia ? . Since diseases play a paramount role in biological invasions, results of Pandora assessments may feed into Harmonia ? through a slightly adapted, hostspecific version named Pandora ? . Harmonia ? , Pandora and Pandora ? may be used both for prioritization purposes and for underpinning detailed risk analyses, and can be consulted online through http://ias. biodiversity.be.

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“…It is a disciplined process that is used to predict whether or not a species is likely to become established and be invasive and to generate a relative ranking of risk (Wittenberg and Cock, 2001). Usually, scores are assigned to each of the risk components and then the scores are added or averaged to give the final result, or odds may be assigned instead of scores (Holt et al, 2006). Entire pathways may also be analysed for risk.…”

Section: Assessing Risk and Selecting Target Pestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insect pests in tropical forestry

2013

Choice Reviews Online

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Since the publication of the first edition of this book in 2001, there have been several significant developments in forestry and forest entomology in the tropics that warranted inclusion in a second edition. One is the emergence of new pest species associated either with the expansion of plantation forestry into new regions or marginal areas, or a gradual adaptation by indigenous species to exotic hosts or the rapid spread of new invasives. The South American carpenterworm, Chilecomadia valdiviana, in Chile, and the South African goat moth, Coryphodema tristis, are examples of emerging indigenous pests associated with the establishment and expansion of exotic Eucalyptus spp. plantations in these countries. The blue gum chalcid, Leptocybe invasa, and the erythrina gall wasp, Quadrastichus erythrinae, are recent examples of the rapid worldwide spread of an invasive insect, similar to that which occurred for the leucaena psyllid, Heteropsylla cubana, in the 1980s and 1990s. The biology, ecology and impact of these, and many additional pest species, are discussed in an expanded Chapter 5.Another development has been the growing awareness of the 'true' global impact of forest invasive species as losses have been better quantified. Damage worldwide has been estimated at several billion US dollars per year, even without taking into account the loss of non-market value, which may well exceed that figure. This has prompted a range of international responses, including the formation of networks and surveillance programmes to provide early warning of incursions of forest invasives and the development of international standards for phytosanitary measures, such as that for wood packaging material, as discussed in Chapter 9. The global increase in self-help schemes such as plant clinics and field schools is also discussed. A range of new technologies has enhanced the accuracy and efficiency of forest health surveys over the past decade. These include the use of geographic information system-global positioning system interface tools and handheld computers to assist navigation and data collection in the field, and the application of digital, remotely sensed imagery to detect and classify damaged forest canopies. There have also been significant advances in the use of semiochemicals, including pheromones, for the detection and monitoring of forest pests and for controlling pest populations by means of mass trapping, lure and kill, lure and infect and mating disruption.One of the fundamental principles underlying this book is that the prevention of problems is far better than attempts at cures. The book is not in any way designed to be a manual of pest management. Instead, it presents concepts and examples of tropical forest viii Preface insects, their ecology, impact and control approaches where appropriate, and we hope that individual readers will make the connection between the generalities in the book and their own situation, socio-economic position and appropriate technologies. Some situations or examples have been revisited...

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A rigorous yet simple quantitative risk assessment method for quarantine pests and non‐native organisms

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes

Assessing the risk of Nipah virus establishment in Australian flying-foxes

Harmonia + and Pandora +: risk screening tools for potentially invasive plants, animals and their pathogens

Insect pests in tropical forestry

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