A risk assessment framework of PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China under 2-dimension linguistic environment

Wu, Yunna; Xu, Chuanbo; Li, Lingwenying; Wang, Yang; Chen, Kaifeng; Xu, Ruoning

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.077

Cited by 116 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Many studies have been conducted of the risk identification of PPP WTE incineration projects in China using literature reviews, case studies, questionnaire surveys, etc Consistent with previous findings, a range of risk factors, such as public opposition risk, environmental risk, and government decision‐making risk, in PPP WTE incineration projects has achieved the consensus of previous findings. However, the differences in the identified risk factors lie in the following four aspects.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Liu et al identified 18 risk factors of 35 PPP WTE incineration plants using content analysis and expert interviews and classified them into three categories: high frequency, medium frequency, and low frequency. Wu et al quantitatively selected 14 critical risk factors from 12 incineration plants and then presented a risk assessment framework by combining two‐dimensional linguistic information with a cloud model. Combining experts' judgments (84 experts) and historical data (22 cases), Wang and Zhang adopted a Bayesian analytic approach to forecast risk occurrence probability, and 7 critical risk factors were identified.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Combining experts' judgments (84 experts) and historical data (22 cases), Wang and Zhang adopted a Bayesian analytic approach to forecast risk occurrence probability, and 7 critical risk factors were identified. From a research methodology perspective, of these five publications, only Wu et al ranked the risk factors of PPP WTE incineration projects based on synthetically calculating their probability and severity degree, while most academic scholars have focused only on risk factors' occurrence frequencies in their research.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determining critical risk factors affecting public‐private partnership waste‐to‐energy incineration projects in China

Cui

Sun

Liu

et al. 2019

Energy Science & Engineering

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As the most effective way to manage the surge in municipal solid waste (MSW) and global energy issues, waste‐to‐energy (WTE) incineration plants have been actively promoted by the Chinese government, and the public‐private partnership (PPP) procurement model is widely used to improve management efficiency. However, risk events have occurred frequently in this industry due to a lack of practice experience and to poor risk management. To investigate the potential risk factors in PPP WTE incineration projects in China, this paper aims to identify critical risk factors by assessing their severity and occurrence probability. Opinions of industry experts were collected via an empirical questionnaire survey. The respondents were invited to rate a total of 18 risk factors that impact the success of PPP WTE projects as gleaned from previous research. The overall results ranked risk factors based on risk impact and showed that public opposition, government decision making, defective legal and regulatory systems, environmental pollution, lack of supporting infrastructure, and government credit are the top six risk factors affecting the sustainable development of PPP WTE incineration projects. In addition, the causes and consequences of each critical risk factor are comprehensively analyzed. Lastly, practical and managerial implications are analyzed in terms of their management of these critical risks. The originality of this research lies in thoroughly identifying potential implicit risk factors according to the current social background using an empirical questionnaire survey based on case study findings. The results of this study are expected to improve risk management and facilitate the sustainable development of the PPP WTE incineration industry in China.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Determining critical risk factors affecting public‐private partnership waste‐to‐energy incineration projects in China

Cui

Sun

Liu

et al. 2019

Energy Science & Engineering

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“…There are many MCDM techniques, which can utilized in different decision-making problem including TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), DEMATEL (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory), AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process), GRA (Grey Relation Analysis), Distance measures, TOPSIS, VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje), PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation), ELECTRE (elimination and choice expressing reality), and BWM (Best-worst method).. [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] Therefore, scientifically expressing decision-making problems and funding mathematic-based techniques to improve the viability of prioritizing alternatives is vital. [39][40][41] Some engineering applications have been done by many scholars as follows. Thus, subjectivity needs to be handled in a realistic case.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A perceptual computing–based method to prioritize intervention actions in the probabilistic risk assessment techniques

Yazdi

2019

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Probabilistic risk assessment techniques as the systematic tools have been widely used on the different type of industrial sectors to reduce the estimated risk to an acceptable level. The fact is to design inherently safety; hazards have to be eliminated and reduced in risk as much as possible with the consideration of several interventions. In this regard, multicriteria decision making (MCDM) science is commonly integrated with the probabilistic risk assessment techniques to improve the safety performance of a system. Thus, it has been widely used to assist decision makers in controlling the identified process hazards in a different type of engineering applications. However, by increasing the complexity of industrial sectors as well as human being judgments, typical MCDM methods cannot highly guarantee their output results. According to this point, proposing MCDM methods based on mathematical programming have been interested in scholars due to high reliability and feasibility of the results. In this paper, we extended integration of MULTIMOORA approach with the Choquet integral under subjectivity circumstances to prioritize corrective actions in a typical probabilistic risk assessment technique. To illustrate the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed method, it has been applied in a real case study.

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“…Kumar et al [11] applied a standard risk-analysis model of NPV-at-risk tool supported by Monte Carlo Simulation to the real-world PPP based highway infrastructure projects, which is able to identify which source of uncertainty has the most influence on the project's financial returns and what is the actual relationship between the critical influencing parameters and associated NPV. Wu et al [12] combined the 2-dimension linguistic information of fuzziness and randomness with the cloud model to put forward a risk assessment framework of PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Price of Credit Default Swaps for Dynamic Project System of Public-Private Partnership

Sun

2018

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Most project operations management belongs to the type of public-private partnership (PPP), which is usually dynamic. This paper aims to propose a method for optimizing the price of credit default swaps (CDS) for the dynamic PPP system. This study investigates the credit risk measurement of PPP project financing and the pricing of risk mitigation instruments which are widely used in the case of immature markets in the early stage of China's PPP development. Based on the credit risk measurement theory of the corporate and debt ratings, this paper considers the differences in various credit enhancement methods in the equity-like debt agreement and determines the credit rating of the equity-like debt in PPP projects. Some optimization methods are also proposed to derive the probability of default, so as to determine the price of the credit risk mitigation instrument of CDS which is based on the equity-like debt.

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A risk assessment framework of PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China under 2-dimension linguistic environment

Cited by 116 publications

References 48 publications

Determining critical risk factors affecting public‐private partnership waste‐to‐energy incineration projects in China

Determining critical risk factors affecting public‐private partnership waste‐to‐energy incineration projects in China

A perceptual computing–based method to prioritize intervention actions in the probabilistic risk assessment techniques

Optimizing Price of Credit Default Swaps for Dynamic Project System of Public-Private Partnership

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