A Risk-Based Model for Allocating Post-Earthquake Reconstruction Finance in Medium-Size Iranian Cities

Abstract

This research proposes efficient financial resource allocation methods in post-earthquake urban reconstruction. Considering the economic challenges associated with such projects, having a predefined plan to identify and address gaps and challenges is crucial. The study emphasises the significance of conducting pre-disaster studies to manage post-disaster financial resources better. Metropolitan Tehran, particularly District 2 of Tehran municipality, was chosen as a case study due to its high importance, vulnerability, and risk. The research encompasses two main parts: seismic risk assessment and allocating financial resources for reconstruction. The first part employed risk analysis and computer programming for seismic risk modelling. In the second part, allocation methods for post-disaster budgets were proposed through interviews, past experiences, and computer programming. Various scenarios were considered for financial resource allocation, and an algorithm was developed to evaluate the reconstruction progress rate over time. The results indicate that, for optimistic, probable, and pessimistic scenarios, the post-earthquake reconstruction process for an urban area with characteristics similar to District 2 of Tehran municipality is estimated to conclude, on average, in 4.3, 9.2, and 11.3 years, respectively. This research provides valuable insights into effective resource allocation strategies, emphasising the importance of pre-disaster planning for efficient post-disaster reconstruction.