A robust DayCent model calibration to assess the potential impact of integrated soil fertility management on maize yields, soil carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya

Abstract

Abstract. Sustainable intensification schemes that increase crop production and soil fertility, such as integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), are a proposed strategy to close yield gaps and achieve food security in sub-Saharan Africa while maintaining soil fertility. However, field trials are insufficient to estimate the potential impact of such technologies at the regional or national scale. Upscaling via biogeochemical models, such as DayCent, from the field-scale to a larger region can be a suitable and powerful way to assess the potential of such agricultural management practices at scale, but they need to be calibrated to new environments and their reliability needs to be assured. Here, we present a robust calibration of DayCent to simulate maize productivity under ISFM, using data from four long-term field experiments. The experimental treatments consisted of the addition of low- to high-quality organic resources to the soil, with and without mineral N fertilizer. We assess the potential of DayCent to represent the key aspects of sustainable intensification, including 1) yield, 2) changes in soil carbon, and 3) global warming potential. The model was calibrated and cross-evaluated with the probabilistic Bayesian calibration technique. The standard parameters of DayCent led to poor simulations of maize yield (Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency; EF 0.33) and changes in SOC (EF -1.3) for different ISFM treatments. After calibration of the model, both the simulation of maize yield (EF 0.51) and the change in SOC (EF 0.54) improved significantly compared to the model with the standard parameter values. A leave-one-site-out cross-evaluation indicated the robustness of the approach for spatial upscaling (i.e., the significant improvement, described before, was achieved by calibrating with data from 3 sites and evaluating with the remaining site). The SOC decomposition parameters were altered most severely by the calibration. They were an order of magnitude higher compared to the default parameter set. This confirms that the decomposition of SOC in tropical maize cropping systems is much faster than in temperate systems and that the DayCent temperature function is not suitable to capture this with a single parameter set. Finally, the global warming potential simulated by DayCent was highest in control -N treatments (0.5–2.5 kg CO2 equivalent per kg grain yield, depending on the site) and could be reduced by 14 to 72 % by combined application of mineral N and manure at a medium rate. In three of the four sites, the global warming potential was largely (> 75 %) dominated by SOC losses. In summary, our results indicate that DayCent is suitable for estimating the impact of ISFM from the site to the regional level, that trade-offs between yields and global warming potential are stronger in low-fertility sites, and that the reduction of SOC losses is a priority for the sustainable intensification of maize production in Kenya.